As of September 23, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?” at 34% YES with $98K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is YES.
Prediction markets give a 34% probability to: will 3 fed rate hikes happen in 2026?.
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/moModels see 25-point mispricing — fair value 59c vs market 34c. BUY YES at 34c — models see 25c of upside.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | YES | 67c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 56c | — |
| AI Claude Analysis | NO | 70c | 52% |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 70c | 62% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | YES | 48c | 41% |
| AI Gemini Flash | ??? | 45c | 42% |
| AI Kimi Macro | YES | 62c | 55% |
3 of 7 models estimate YES fair value above market (48–67c vs 34c). Kimi Macro leads with 55% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of YES at 59c — market prices it at 34c. 25-point gap supports YES.
The sole tracked wallet entered YES at 20c, positioning long on the 3-hike scenario well below current pricing. That entry signals conviction that the market underpriced hike risk and that the wallet expects further repricing toward YES. With no NO entries from this wallet, its directional bias is unambiguously bullish on the hike count.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa4b3..b8 | Retail | YES | $1.2K | +67% |
All tracked YES exposure is in profit, with entries at 20c against a current 34c mark, yielding a 70% unrealized gain. No NO positions are profitable, leaving the downside side with no supportive P&L cushion. This profit overhang on YES reduces panic-selling pressure and creates price support near the 20c entry zone, though the 34c level remains vulnerable to profit-taking.
Polymarket prices YES at 34c with $98K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 59c. Significant 25-point gap — model sees YES as substantially mispriced.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 34c | $98K |
| Our Model | 59c | — |