Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 14%: Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (14% YES). Published May 6, 2026 at 6:33 AM MDT.

What’s Happening

Iran's Revolutionary Guard announced on Wednesday, May 6, 2026 that safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz would be provided under unspecified procedures, following President Trump's decision to pause a U.S. military effort to guide merchant vessels through the strategic waterway. The Guard issued a statement appreciating "the cooperation of captains and vessel owners operating in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman regarding transit through the Strait of Hormuz in accordance with Iran's regulations." The announcement marked a significant pivot in the standoff between Tehran and Washington, which had escalated after Trump warned of bombings absent a diplomatic deal. The question of whether 60 ships transit the strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31 hinges on how quickly commercial operators resume normal traffic volumes under the new compliance regime. [Aspen Public Radio, May 6]

A CNN report dated May 7, 2026 revealed that Iran has formalized a set of new rules for vessels seeking to transit the strait, pressing ahead with efforts to cement control over the waterway in defiance of U.S. warnings. According to a document seen by CNN, Tehran is forcing shippers to comply with a new protocol — or risk attack. Multiple vessels had already come under attack in preceding weeks, with anchored ships visible off Bandar Abbas in southern Iran on Monday, May 4. The new rules introduce procedural friction that may suppress daily throughput well below pre-crisis baselines, where the Strait of Hormuz historically handled roughly 20% of global oil flows. Whether 60 ships transit the strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31 depends on shipper willingness to accept Iranian compliance demands. [CNN, May 7]

The next three weeks until the May 31 deadline will test whether shipping volumes can recover under Iran's unilateral protocol. Industry trackers will be watching daily AIS transit counts at the chokepoint, with the question of 60 ships transit the strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31 requiring a single qualifying day above threshold. Trump's pause on U.S. military escort operations removes one source of tension but leaves underwriters, charterers, and flag states to navigate Iranian boarding rules independently. War-risk insurance premiums, P&I club guidance, and the response of major operators including Maersk, MSC, and tanker owners chartered by Gulf producers will shape near-term traffic. Any fresh attack on a transiting vessel would likely depress daily counts further and extend the deviation from pre-crisis norms. [CNN, May 7]

Traded on Polymarket — $52K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($52K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 14c YES.