Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 12%: Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (12% YES). US says two American merchant ships pass through Strait of Hormuz.

What’s Happening

The question of whether 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31 has become a critical metric for gauging the resumption of normal maritime traffic in the region. As of May 4, 2026, the U.S. military confirmed that two American-flagged merchant vessels successfully passed through the Strait of Hormuz, marking the first such transit since the escalation of hostilities. Central Command (CENTCOM) described the event as "a first step" in restoring commercial shipping, which had been reduced to a trickle after the U.S.-led campaign against Iran began in late February. Prior to the conflict, roughly 3,000 vessels per month transited the waterway, according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence, but the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has since imposed severe restrictions, making the threshold of 80 ships in a single day a distant benchmark. [New York Post, May 4] [CNN, Apr 29]

The significance of the 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31 prediction lies in its direct link to global energy security and supply chain stability. The Strait of Hormuz is a chokepoint for approximately 20% of the world's oil, and the ongoing conflict has disrupted flows of crude, natural gas, and fertilizers, sending shockwaves through international markets. On May 4, President Donald Trump announced "Project Freedom," a U.S. Navy-led operation to guide commercial vessels through a southern route of the strait, though Tehran has warned it will attack any armed force entering the waterway without coordination. The same day, U.S. forces attacked Iranian boats after they targeted Navy ships, threatening a fragile ceasefire. The Maersk-operated vehicle carrier Alliance Fairfax, a U.S.-flagged vessel, was accompanied by military assets during its transit, signaling a concerted effort to rebuild traffic volume. [The Guardian, May 4] [Politico, May 4] [Defense News, May 4]

Looking ahead, the probability of achieving 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31 remains low, with current assessments placing it at 12%. The timeline is tight: only 27 days remain until the deadline, and the daily transit count has been near zero for weeks. While the successful passage of two American ships on May 4 provides a proof of concept, shipping bosses remain nervous about the operational details of "Project Freedom" and the risk of further skirmishes. The U.S. and Iran have exchanged boat attacks that threaten to unravel the ceasefire, and without a broader diplomatic agreement, scaling up to 80 vessels per day appears unlikely. The next key development will be whether the U.S. can sustain safe passage for a growing number of commercial carriers without triggering a wider confrontation. [The Guardian, May 4] [Politico, May 4]

Traded on Polymarket — $58K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($58K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 12c YES.