Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 94%: Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31. Currently, markets see this as likely (94% YES). New York bans new AI data centers, impacting Microsoft, Amazon, Google.

What’s Happening

Alphabet shares rallied this week ahead of the company's second-quarter earnings report, tightening its grip on the question of whether Alphabet will be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31. Shares jumped on Monday, July 20 after reports that the Google parent plans to deploy a new in-house AI chip — referred to internally as "Frozen" — to run its Gemini models more efficiently. The move added a combined $15 billion to the net worths of cofounders Larry Page and Sergey Brin, who together hold 87.9% of Alphabet's Class B shares, lifting their fortunes by $8 billion and $7.4 billion respectively. [Forbes, Jul 20]

The rally extends a run that has more than quadrupled Alphabet's valuation over the past year. On Wednesday, July 15, Page's fortune surged above $300 billion after Warren Buffett, 95, took credit for Berkshire Hathaway's multibillion-dollar bet on the Google parent, citing intensifying competition in AI as a driver of the stock's strength. That momentum is central to keeping Alphabet the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31, though the position remains contingent on rival mega-caps' moves. Alphabet is set to report Q2 results this week, weeks after announcing a stock sale to finance the construction of AI data centers. [Forbes, Jul 15]

Headwinds persist. On July 14, New York issued an executive order banning new AI data centers to assess strains on electricity demand, a measure affecting Microsoft, Amazon and Google. A day earlier, authors and publishers including Hachette Book Group and Elsevier filed a federal lawsuit accusing Google of using copyrighted books to train Gemini, with potential liabilities estimated between $10 billion and $100 billion. Whether Alphabet stays the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31 now hinges on this week's earnings print and the reaction of megacap peers. [Crypto Briefing, Jul 15]

Traded on Polymarket — $53K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($53K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 93c YES.