Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 30%: Will another country leave OPEC in 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (30% YES).

What’s Happening

The prediction market assessing whether another country will leave OPEC in 2026 currently shows a 30% probability of a "YES" outcome, reflecting heightened uncertainty following the United Arab Emirates' shock departure from the organization in late April. The UAE's exit, which blindsided other members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners, was driven by long-standing disagreements over production quotas and a strategic pivot toward preparing for peak oil demand. Analysts noted that the UAE "wants to be free from the constraints of OPEC" as it eyes a post-war environment where demand may plateau, raising the question of whether other members might follow suit and prompt another country leave OPEC in 2026. [Newsweek, Fri May 01]

In response to the UAE's withdrawal, OPEC+ nations—including Saudi Arabia and Russia—agreed on Sunday, May 3 to a modest production increase of 188,000 barrels per day for June, the third consecutive monthly hike. The move was designed to signal business-as-usual continuity and "demonstrate their collective commitment to support oil market stability," according to an OPEC+ statement. However, the increase remains largely symbolic, as the ongoing Iran war continues to disrupt Gulf oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, choking off roughly one-fifth of global oil and gas trade. The cartel's decision to press on without mentioning the UAE exit underscores the fragility of the alliance and the potential for another country leave OPEC in 2026 if internal tensions persist. [World Oil, Mon May 04]

The probability that another country leave OPEC in 2026 remains low at 70% NO, but the UAE's exit has exposed deep fractures within the group. The UAE had long chafed under production constraints, and its departure—combined with the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz—has shifted the geopolitical calculus for other members, particularly smaller producers with limited spare capacity. Analysts at Rystad Energy described the quota hike as an expected move to show the group is "ready to raise supplies once the war stops," but the underlying instability could encourage further defections. The next key test will be whether OPEC+ can maintain cohesion during its scheduled meetings later this year, as the market watches for signs of another country leave OPEC in 2026. [Los Angeles Times, Sun May 03]

Traded on Polymarket — $106K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 24c YES with $106K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.