Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 34%: Will another country leave OPEC in 2026. Currently, markets are divided (34% YES, 66% NO). UAE to Leave OPEC and OPEC+ in May to Pursue New Strategy.

What’s Happening

The prediction market assessing whether another country will leave OPEC in 2026 currently shows a 34% probability of a "YES" outcome against 66% for "NO," reflecting significant uncertainty following the United Arab Emirates' announcement that it will exit the cartel effective May 1, 2026. The UAE's decision, reported by multiple outlets including Bloomberg and The New York Times on April 28, 2026, marks a historic fracture in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, as the Emirates plans to ramp up production and pursue a new strategic direction amid the aftermath of the Iran war. The move has been praised by former President Donald Trump, who called it "great" and argued it will lower oil prices, while analysts view it as a blow to Saudi-led efforts to maintain production discipline. [Bloomberg, Apr 28]

The departure of the UAE, which was producing roughly 3.6 million barrels per day before the conflict, weakens OPEC's collective influence over global energy markets at a time when the world is still reeling from the Hormuz oil crisis. The Washington Post reported on April 28, 2026 that the exit is a direct blow to Saudi Arabia, which has long relied on UAE cooperation to enforce output quotas. The question of whether another country will leave OPEC in 2026 now hinges on the cartel's ability to retain members like Iraq, Kuwait, and Nigeria, which may face similar pressures to prioritize national revenue over group discipline. The UAE's Energy Ministry stated the realignment will help meet changing demand, signaling that other producers could follow suit if market conditions deteriorate further. [Washington Post, Apr 28]

Looking ahead, the probability that another country will leave OPEC in 2026 will be shaped by the cartel's response to the UAE's exit and the broader geopolitical landscape. The Associated Press noted on April 28, 2026 that the UAE's decision comes amid heightened tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, which has disrupted shipping and spiked energy costs. If OPEC fails to stabilize prices or if member states perceive the group as unable to protect their interests, additional departures could accelerate. The market's current 34% "YES" probability suggests traders see a meaningful but not dominant chance of further fragmentation, with key monitoring points including OPEC's next ministerial meeting and any signs of discord among remaining members. [AP News, Apr 28]

Traded on Polymarket — $97K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($97K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 34c YES.