Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 88%: Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31. Currently, markets see this as likely (88% YES).

What’s Happening

Anthropic is on track to generate $10.9 billion in revenue during the second quarter of 2026, more than double the $4.8 billion it produced in the March quarter, according to a source familiar with the matter. The company is projected to post $559 million in operating income, which would mark its first profitable quarter in company history. The revenue acceleration coincides with the Financial Times reporting that Anthropic is set to raise $300 billion in funding at a $900 billion valuation, surpassing OpenAI's $852 billion mark. The question of whether anthropic's valuation hit (high) $1.25t by december 31 is being shaped by both the financing round and a broader public-markets repricing of frontier AI labs. [CNBC, May 20]

On May 20, Reuters confirmed that Anthropic has agreed to pay SpaceX $1.25 billion monthly for AI compute capacity through 2029, a commitment disclosed in SpaceX's IPO filing. The compute deal underscores the capital intensity behind Anthropic's revenue scaling and ties the company's growth trajectory to SpaceX's own Starlink-funded data center expansion. Separately, Anthropic announced a $200 million, four-year partnership with the Gates Foundation on May 18 to fund government AI tools for healthcare, education and agriculture. Whether anthropic's valuation hit (high) $1.25t by december 31 will depend on whether the rumored $900 billion primary round closes and prints a secondary mark above it. [Reuters, May 21]

Public-market comparables are also moving the goalposts. CNBC reported on May 21 that traders are pricing OpenAI, Anthropic and SpaceX to trade at first-day valuations north of $1.4 trillion, which would leapfrog Berkshire Hathaway. SpaceX officially filed for its public debut on May 20, and OpenAI is reportedly preparing a confidential filing of its own, intensifying the comparable-set repricing that benefits Anthropic's mark. Kalshi traders separately assign a 92% probability to the trio clearing the $1.4T threshold on debut day. The remaining catalysts before December 31 are the close of the $300 billion primary round, the Q3 2026 earnings print, and any secondary-market tender that would crystallize a valuation above the $1.25T high band. [CNBC, May 21]

Traded on Polymarket — $51K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($51K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 88c YES.