As of August 31, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?” at 12% YES with $757K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is NO.
Prediction markets put the probability at 10%: Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (10% YES).
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/mo7/7 models agree on NO, fair value 11c vs market 13c. Weak edge — consider waiting for stronger signal.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 94c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 71c | — |
| AI Claude Analysis | NO | 96c | 88% |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 91c | 78% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | NO | 92c | 72% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 85c | 78% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 92c | 82% |
7 of 7 models estimate NO fair value above market (71–96c vs 87c). Claude Analysis leads with 88% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 89c — market prices it at 87c. 2-point gap supports NO.
The single tracked wallet is positioned exclusively on NO at 85c, signaling conviction that Anthropic will not reach a $4.0T valuation by year-end. With no YES entries from this wallet, there is no smart-money counterweight to challenge the bearish thesis. This positioning implies the informed flow expects the valuation to remain well below the strike, keeping YES pricing depressed.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x7c3d..6b | Retail | NO | $1.8K | +4% |
With YES at 13c, every YES position is underwater while all NO entries at 85c are in profit, creating a strongly one-sided P&L picture. The profitable NO cohort has little incentive to exit, reinforcing resistance near the current price and capping any YES rally. This asymmetry suggests the market sees the $4.0T threshold as a tail scenario rather than a base case.
Polymarket prices YES at 12c with $757K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 11c. 1-point gap is within normal range — no significant mispricing.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 12c | $757K |
| Our Model | 11c | — |