As of August 31, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?” at 5% YES with $919K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is NO.
Prediction markets put the probability at 10%: Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (10% YES).
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/mo6/7 models agree on NO, fair value 8c vs market 5c. Weak edge — consider waiting for stronger signal.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 98c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 75c | — |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 96c | 82% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | NO | 96c | 78% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 88c | 85% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 97c | 92% |
| AI Claude Analysis | ??? | — | 0% |
6 of 7 models estimate NO fair value below market (75–98c vs 95c). Kimi Macro leads with 92% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 92c — market prices it at 95c. 3-point gap supports YES.
The single tracked wallet took a NO position at 85c, signaling strong conviction that Anthropic will not reach a $4.0T valuation by December 31. This is smart-money alignment with the dominant NO side, and the entry price suggests the wallet was willing to pay up for near-certainty rather than chase a cheap lottery ticket. The positioning reinforces the bearish direction on this market, with no tracked YES accumulation to counter it.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x7c3d..6b | MM | NO | $1.9K | +12% |
The lone tracked wallet is fully profitable on the NO side, having entered at 85c against a current YES price of 5c, implying NO is trading near 95c and the position is deep in the money. With 0% of YES holders in profit and 100% of NO holders profitable, there is no cost-basis support for YES at these levels. The 5c YES price reflects a near-certain NO outcome, with any residual premium likely just time value on an extreme long-shot.
Polymarket prices YES at 5c with $919K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 8c. 3-point gap is within normal range — no significant mispricing.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 5c | $919K |
| Our Model | 8c | — |