Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?

As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?” at 6% YES with $185K traded. No tracked wallet holds a position on this market, so there is no verdict.

Prediction markets put the probability at 6%: Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (6% YES). The Polymarket event “Anthropic IPO by \_\_?” currently prices year-end 2026 as more likely than not.

What’s Happening

Anthropic's private market valuation remains the subject of a multi-timeframe contract on Polymarket, with the "Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?" line resolving based on the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC. The market resolves YES only if Anthropic's private valuation, as measured by that benchmark, equals or falls below $800 billion on any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. The current reading of 6% YES against 94% NO indicates that participants assign a low probability to the company's valuation landing at or beneath that threshold within the window. [CryptoSlate, Oct 25]

The valuation contract sits alongside separate Polymarket activity on a potential Anthropic public listing. The event "Anthropic IPO by __?" priced the December 31, 2026 deadline at $0.755, or a 75.5% implied probability of a listing by year-end, while shorter windows fell sharply: October 31, 2026 at $0.365, September 30, 2026 at $0.095, and July 31, 2026 at $0.007. The June 30, 2026 contract had already resolved NO. Traders were also pricing a large valuation on debut, according to the report. [24/7 Wall St., Jul 7]

Anthropic is a privately held research company headquartered in San Francisco, California, operating in the research services industry, according to company profile data. Because no public shares exist, the "Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31" contract depends on private-market pricing reported through Nasdaq Private Market rather than exchange trading. The next catalysts are any updated NPM Price prints and developments on the IPO timeline, both of which would inform whether the $800 billion low-side threshold is approached before the December deadline. [Anthropic, recent]

Traded on Polymarket — $185K Volume