Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
NO
86c
YES
14c
Prediction markets put the probability at 14%: Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (14% YES). However, "Tampa's remarkable streak of avoiding a direct hit from a major hurricane continued with Milton," DaSilva said.
Up from 10% to 14% since 2026-04-14 (+4pp)
Traded on Polymarket — $134K Volume
Polymarket prices this at 14c YES with $134K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.