Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?

Prediction markets put the probability at 81%: Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record. Currently, markets see this as likely (81% YES).

What’s Happening

Climate scientist James Hansen predicted on May 1, 2026 that this year will surpass 2024 as the hottest on record, citing the combined effect of long-term warming and an El Niño phase expected to develop in the second half of the year. Climatologist Zeke Hausfather noted that the average temperature anomaly across the first three months of 2026 already places the year on track to set a new annual benchmark. Forecasters are watching whether any month of hottest on record status will be triggered as ocean heat content continues to build through the boreal summer. [New Scientist, May 1]

The U.S. Climate Prediction Center placed the probability of a "super El Niño" — defined as Pacific sea surface temperatures rising at least 4 degrees above average — at 25%, with current anomalies already running 2 to 3 degrees above normal. The Washington Post reported on May 6, 2026 that the developing event could become one of the strongest in a century, with cascading effects on global rainfall, food supply, and tropical conflict zones. The Boston Globe noted on May 7 that an ultra-strong El Niño would likely deliver a near-record warm summer to New England, increase heat-wave frequency, and steer more coastal storms toward the region. [Washington Post, May 6]

In India, an extreme heatwave is already under way, with the country hosting most of the world's hottest cities in early May 2026 and authorities flagging health, agricultural, and labor-market disruption. The compounding signal — surface-level heat in South Asia, ocean warming in the equatorial Pacific, and northern-hemisphere summer still ahead — is what underlies forecaster expectations that any month of hottest on record could fall in July or August 2026. ECMWF model runs cited by The Washington Post show El Niño intensity climbing through the third quarter, the period when monthly global-temperature records are typically set. Whether any month of hottest on record threshold is formally crossed will depend on NOAA, NASA GISS, and Copernicus monthly bulletins released through the second half of the year. [NewsX, May 2]

Traded on Polymarket — $141K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 84c YES with $141K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.