Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?

Prediction markets put the probability at 80%: Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record. Currently, markets see this as likely (80% YES). Forecast for Strong El Nino Fans Worries About Global Crops as Iran War Bites.

What’s Happening

Forecasters are increasingly warning that 2026 could see a "super El Niño" develop, a meteorological event that would dramatically raise global temperatures and potentially make any month of the hottest on record a reality. Scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) have indicated that this event could be the strongest El Niño ever recorded, with the Japan weather bureau placing a 70% chance of the phenomenon emerging during the northern hemisphere summer. The prospect of a super El Niño has already triggered concerns about extreme weather, as fast-moving wildfires in Georgia and Florida have destroyed nearly 50 homes, with a new fire outlook warning that up to 8 million acres across the U.S. are at risk this year. [New York Post, Apr 24]

The potential for any month of the hottest on record carries significant implications for global agriculture and food security, particularly as the Iran war compounds existing supply chain disruptions. Reuters reports that forecasts for a strong El Niño promise hotter, drier weather across Asia in the second half of 2026, threatening crops while farmers already grapple with fertilizer shortages and costly fuel. China's climate officials have expressed fear over the impending conditions, which could exacerbate the strain on global food supplies already under pressure from geopolitical conflict. The convergence of a super El Niño with ongoing war-related disruptions creates a uniquely volatile scenario for commodity markets and food prices worldwide. [Successful Farming, Apr 24]

While it remains too early for a definitive picture, climate models are converging on the likelihood that 2026 will experience unprecedented heat, with the Guardian noting that a super El Niño could supercharge extreme weather events globally. The phenomenon, characterized by warming ocean surfaces in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, typically lasts between nine and 12 months, meaning its effects could span much of the year. If the strongest El Niño on record materializes as predicted, the probability that any month of the hottest on record will be set in 2026 rises substantially, with scientists warning of cascading impacts including droughts, flooding, and further wildfire destruction across multiple continents. [The Guardian, Apr 24]

Traded on Polymarket — $134K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 80c YES with $134K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.