Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 70%: Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31. Currently, markets see this as likely (70% YES). South Korea's SK Hynix has seen its stock soar more than sevenfold over the past year due to the global memory crunch.

What’s Happening

Whether Apple will be the apple second-largest company in the world by market cap on july 31 hinges on a rally that has reshaped the megacap leaderboard in weeks. Apple shares rose 1.4% on Monday, July 13, hitting a record after climbing roughly 16% since bottoming on June 25 — adding about $650 billion in market value over that span. The move followed a June slump triggered by a disappointing AI-features presentation, but traders have since rotated into the iPhone maker as a relative haven from the broader AI-spending selloff. "Apple is benefiting because it isn't in the storm that the rest of the AI trade is in," one strategist told Bloomberg. [Bloomberg, Jul 13]

The rally has left Apple standing out among the "Magnificent Seven." The other six — Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Nvidia, Meta, and Tesla — all sit below their all-time closing highs, and Apple's roughly 16.5% year-to-date gain leads the group. Its decision to sit out the data-center capital-spending spree and instead pay Google for access to Gemini frontier models — underpinning a revamped Siri and Apple Intelligence — is now viewed by traders as an asset rather than a liability. That contrarian stance matters for the apple second-largest company in the world by market cap on july 31 question, because it decouples Apple's valuation from the AI-capex names whose shares have wobbled. [MacRumors, Jul 13]

What happens next depends on whether the AI trade stabilizes or extends its pullback through month-end. Chip bellwethers remain strong — TSMC posted record second-quarter revenue up 36% year-over-year, and SK Hynix, valued near $1 trillion, debuted on the Nasdaq on July 10 — signaling durable AI demand that could pull capital back toward Nvidia and peers. A renewed rotation into those names could compress Apple's edge before July 31, while continued caution on AI capex would favor Apple's record run. The outcome turns on relative momentum among the top megacaps into the final trading day of the month. [Reuters, Jul 13]

Traded on Polymarket — $50K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($50K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 70c YES.