As of September 3, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?” at 8% YES with $2.1M traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is NO.
Bitcoin's largest Deribit open-interest position targets $120,000, yet traders price just a 12% chance it hits that level by year-end.
Bitcoin has struggled to build momentum through much of 2026, trading around $73,500 in early May before recovering toward the $82,000 area, according to price snapshots reported that month. Those levels sit roughly 35% below the $126,000 all-time high set in October 2025, leaving the asset well short of the doubling required for bitcoin to reach $120,000 before year-end. The retreat from record territory has compressed the market's near-term expectations, with realistic year-end ranges cited between $90,000 and $130,000 under baseline institutional demand and no extraordinary catalysts. [247wallst, May 06]
Derivatives positioning shows the target remains actively contested. As of May 31, 2026, aggregate Bitcoin futures open interest reached $42.6 billion across 11 exchanges, and the single largest position on Deribit was a bet that bitcoin reaches $120,000 by December 2026, tied to 7,089.4 BTC. The second-largest contract, however, was a protective position sized for a decline to $60,000 by the same date, covering 6,509.4 BTC — a split that underscores how sharply traders diverge on the year-end path. On Polymarket earlier in the year, traders assigned a 20% probability to a $120,000 print in 2026 and 36% to $100,000. [Cryptonews, May 31]
Longer-range forecasts remain wide. In August 2026, Google's Gemini AI projected a range of $120,000 to $150,000 before the year closes, contingent on six market forces aligning, while earlier analyst commentary flagged $125,000 as attainable given that Bitcoin has posted 100%-plus annual returns in 7 of the past 14 years. The gap between those bullish scenarios and current spot levels means the outcome hinges on the pace of institutional inflows and macro conditions over the remaining weeks. With the asset still trading below prior highs, a move to $120,000 would require sustained buying pressure into the December 31, 2026 settlement. [Cryptonews, Aug 06]
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/mo6/7 models agree on NO, fair value 11c vs market 8c. Weak edge — consider waiting for stronger signal.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 98c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 74c | — |
| AI Claude Analysis | NO | 90c | 72% |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 93c | 88% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | ??? | 28c | 42% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 85c | 85% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 92c | 72% |
6 of 7 models estimate NO fair value below market (74–98c vs 92c). DeepSeek Quant leads with 88% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 89c — market prices it at 92c. 3-point gap supports YES.
The single tracked wallet entered NO at 91c, positioning it as the dominant and only visible side with a profitable stake. That entry signals conviction against Bitcoin reaching $120,000 by the deadline, and with no offsetting YES accumulation, the smart-money read points to continued bearish pressure on the YES price.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x0c0e..4e | MM | NO | $3.8K | +2% |
With YES at 8c, every YES position is deeply underwater while all NO entries at 91c are profitable, creating strong incentive for NO holders to defend or exit at a gain. The absence of profitable YES positions removes a natural source of buying support, making the 8c level fragile and vulnerable to further downside drift.
Significant 22-cent gap: Polymarket at 8c vs Kalshi at 30c. Kalshi traders see a substantially different probability. Our model estimates fair value at 11c.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 8c | $2.1M |
| Kalshi | 30c | — |
| Our Model | 11c | — |