As of September 3, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?” at 10% YES with $1.7M traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is NO.
Bitcoin's largest Deribit open-interest position targets $120,000, yet traders price just a 12% chance it hits that level by year-end.
Bitcoin has struggled to build momentum through much of 2026, trading around $73,500 in early May before recovering toward the $82,000 area, according to price snapshots reported that month. Those levels sit roughly 35% below the $126,000 all-time high set in October 2025, leaving the asset well short of the doubling required for bitcoin to reach $120,000 before year-end. The retreat from record territory has compressed the market's near-term expectations, with realistic year-end ranges cited between $90,000 and $130,000 under baseline institutional demand and no extraordinary catalysts. [247wallst, May 06]
Derivatives positioning shows the target remains actively contested. As of May 31, 2026, aggregate Bitcoin futures open interest reached $42.6 billion across 11 exchanges, and the single largest position on Deribit was a bet that bitcoin reaches $120,000 by December 2026, tied to 7,089.4 BTC. The second-largest contract, however, was a protective position sized for a decline to $60,000 by the same date, covering 6,509.4 BTC — a split that underscores how sharply traders diverge on the year-end path. On Polymarket earlier in the year, traders assigned a 20% probability to a $120,000 print in 2026 and 36% to $100,000. [Cryptonews, May 31]
Longer-range forecasts remain wide. In August 2026, Google's Gemini AI projected a range of $120,000 to $150,000 before the year closes, contingent on six market forces aligning, while earlier analyst commentary flagged $125,000 as attainable given that Bitcoin has posted 100%-plus annual returns in 7 of the past 14 years. The gap between those bullish scenarios and current spot levels means the outcome hinges on the pace of institutional inflows and macro conditions over the remaining weeks. With the asset still trading below prior highs, a move to $120,000 would require sustained buying pressure into the December 31, 2026 settlement. [Cryptonews, Aug 06]
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/mo7/7 models agree on NO, fair value 13c vs market 10c. Weak edge — consider waiting for stronger signal.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 98c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 72c | — |
| AI Claude Analysis | NO | 91c | 78% |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 92c | 72% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | NO | 82c | 62% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 85c | 80% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 88c | 72% |
7 of 7 models estimate NO fair value below market (72–98c vs 90c). Gemini Flash leads with 80% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 87c — market prices it at 90c. 3-point gap supports YES.
The single tracked wallet holds NO at 91c, signaling a strong conviction that Bitcoin will not reach $120,000 by end-2026, likely based on macroeconomic or adoption headwinds. This entry near the top of the NO range suggests the wallet is either a market maker providing liquidity or a high-conviction bear, but with no YES entries, there is no counterbalancing smart money. The lack of YES accumulation at 10c implies that even sophisticated traders see limited upside probability, reinforcing bearish sentiment.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x0c0e..4e | MM | NO | $3.6K | -2% |
All tracked positions are underwater, with NO holders entering at 91c facing a 100% loss if YES reaches 10c, while YES holders are at a 100% loss from inception. The dominant NO side shows no profitable exits, indicating trapped capital that may resist further downside unless forced liquidation occurs. Price support for NO is weak near 91c, as any upward drift in YES would trigger significant NO losses.
Significant 20-cent gap: Polymarket at 10c vs Kalshi at 30c. Kalshi traders see a substantially different probability. Our model estimates fair value at 13c.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 10c | $1.7M |
| Kalshi | 30c | — |
| Our Model | 13c | — |