Will Coco Gauff win the 2026 Women’s US Open?

Prediction markets put the probability at 10%: Will Coco Gauff win the 2026 Women’s US Open. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (10% YES).

What’s Happening

The 2026 Women’s US Open field is set against a backdrop of significant recent turnover at the top of the women’s game. Aryna Sabalenka, the world No. 1, enters as the two-time defending champion in New York, but she has not won a major in 2026, with Elena Rybakina (Australian Open), Mirra Andreeva (French Open), and Linda Nosková (Wimbledon) splitting the year’s first three Grand Slam titles. Coco Gauff, the 2024 US Open champion and current No. 4, is one of seven former champions in the draw, alongside Iga Świątek, Naomi Osaka, and Emma Raducanu. The American contingent also includes Jessica Pegula and Amanda Anisimova, both former finalists in New York, making the women’s draw unusually deep with 11 former Grand Slam singles champions in the initial field. [USA Today, Aug 20]

Gauff’s path to a second coco gauff women’s us open title faces a formidable obstacle in Sabalenka, who has won this event in 2024 and 2025 and remains the top-ranked player. However, Gauff’s 2026 season has shown resilience, including a run to the Wimbledon semifinals in July, where she lost to Karolína Muchová in a match that was considered a near coin-flip by oddsmakers. At just 22 years old, Gauff has already accumulated a Grand Slam title (2023 US Open), a runner-up finish at the 2025 US Open, and has been ranked as the best-paid female athlete for three consecutive years, combining prize money and endorsements. Her hard-court pedigree in New York — where she has reached at least the fourth round in every appearance since 2021 — underpins her status as a leading American contender, though her 2026 major results have not yet included a final. [ESPN, Jul 07]

The tournament’s schedule and prize money were confirmed in August, with the main draw beginning on Aug 24, 2026 at Flushing Meadows. Wild cards were awarded to Venus Williams (age 46) and Sloane Stephens, the 2017 champion, adding veteran depth to the draw. For Gauff, the immediate question is whether she can convert her consistent deep runs into a second coco gauff women’s us open crown, particularly given that she has not won a hard-court title since 2024. Sabalenka, meanwhile, is chasing a three-peat, a feat not achieved in the women’s game since Serena Williams won three straight from 2012-2014. The outcome of this market hinges on whether Gauff can overcome Sabalenka’s dominance in New York, with the draw and early-round matchups set to be revealed on Aug 21, 2026. [US Open, Jul 21]

Traded on Polymarket — $53K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($53K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 10c YES.