As of September 2, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will Coco Gauff win the 2026 Women’s US Open?” at 26% YES with $270K traded. No tracked wallet holds a position on this market, so there is no verdict.
Prediction markets put the probability at 18%: Will Coco Gauff win the 2026 Women’s US Open. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (18% YES).
Coco Gauff’s path to a potential second title at the 2026 Women’s US Open began on Tuesday, September 1, with a first-round match against Zeynep Sönmez in Arthur Ashe Stadium. The 22-year-old enters the tournament as the No. 4 seed and on the back of a dominant run at the Cincinnati Open, where she won the title without dropping a set, defeating Jessica Pegula in the final on August 23. Gauff, who previously won the U.S. Open in 2023 and added the French Open singles title in 2025, has shown improved serve consistency this season, averaging four double faults per match compared to nine in 2025, according to match data. [Bleacher Report, Sep 2]
The stakes in New York extend beyond the trophy itself, as four women remain in contention to leave the tournament as the world’s top-ranked player on September 12. Gauff and Pegula would each claim that No. 1 ranking for the first time by winning the 2026 Women’s US Open, while Iga Swiatek, the 2022 champion, also factors into the equation. Gauff’s projected semifinal opponent is Swiatek, who may face an injured Elena Rybakina in the quarterfinals; Rybakina is dealing with Achilles soreness. Pegula, meanwhile, is projected to reach the final from the opposite half of the draw, setting up a potential rematch of the Cincinnati final. [Newstribune, Aug 31]
Gauff’s preparation for the 2026 Women’s US Open has been marked by a shift in match style, with analysts noting she has been “wiping opponents off the court” rather than grinding out wins. Her first-round opponent, Sönmez, is known for consistency and court movement, but Gauff is expected to advance in straight sets given her current form. The tournament runs through September 12, with Gauff’s quarterfinal and semifinal matches scheduled for the second week. Her opening match was part of Day 2 action, with the full bracket and Day 3 schedule released on September 2. [The Athletic, Sep 1]
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