Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?

Prediction markets put the probability at 42%: Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June. Currently, markets are divided (42% YES, 58% NO). | Marine •616 days | 75.08 | -2.22 | -2.87% |.

What’s Happening

The probability that crude oil (CL) will hit a high of $120 by the end of June currently stands at 42%, reflecting a market deeply unsettled by geopolitical turmoil. On Tuesday, April 28, 2026, Brent crude topped $111 per barrel as diplomatic efforts to resolve the Iran war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz stalled. Analysts have rapidly raised their price forecasts, with Goldman Sachs issuing its latest upward revision on April 27, while Standard Chartered recently pegged a new equilibrium at $95 per barrel. The sustained disruption to tanker traffic through the Hormuz chokepoint has directly tightened global supply, pushing spot prices higher and making the $120 threshold for crude oil (CL) hit (high) $120 by end of June a more plausible scenario than it was just weeks ago. [Oilprice, Apr 28]

The broader economic and political implications of these price moves are significant. On Tuesday, Asian shares fell as the Bank of Japan warned that the war-driven surge in crude costs would slow economic growth, while the S&P 500 also declined on Monday. Brent crude, which traded near $70 before the conflict, has briefly shot to nearly $120 during the most acute supply scares. In the United States, the average national gasoline price hit $4.176 per gallon on Tuesday morning, up 20 cents from a month ago, according to AAA. Axios reported that these rising fuel costs are auguring more political pain for the GOP, as voters feel the pinch at the pump. The persistent absence of a diplomatic endgame that frees up the Strait of Hormuz keeps upward pressure on the market, directly influencing the probability that crude oil (CL) hit (high) $120 by end of June will occur. [San Francisco Chronicle, Apr 28]

Looking ahead, the key variable remains the trajectory of U.S.-Iran diplomacy and the physical flow of oil through the Hormuz strait. With Brent crude hovering around $112 on Tuesday morning—a 4% hike—and Goldman Sachs and other banks continuing to lift their price targets, the path to $120 is narrowing. However, the current 58% probability assigned to the "NO" outcome suggests that traders see significant headwinds, including potential demand destruction from high prices and the possibility of a sudden diplomatic breakthrough. India’s crude imports have already sunk despite record Russian oil buying, and U.S. oil exports are set to hit a record high, indicating a market that is actively re-routing supply chains. Whether crude oil (CL) will hit a high of $120 by the end of June hinges on whether the Hormuz stalemate persists or escalates in the coming weeks. [Axios, Apr 28]

Traded on Polymarket — $471K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 61c YES with $471K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.