Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?

Prediction markets put the probability at 8%: Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (8% YES). | WTI Crude •10 hours | 89.83 | -12.44 | -12.16% |.

What’s Happening

WTI Crude settled at $89.83 on May 6, 2026, down 12.16% in a single session after President Trump announced the U.S. would help guide commercial vessels out of the Strait of Hormuz, easing supply-disruption fears that had pushed benchmark prices toward triple digits earlier in the week. Brent Crude fell 10.50% to $98.33, while heating oil dropped 10.38% and gasoline futures slid 8.20%. For crude oil (CL) hit (low) $60 by end of June to resolve YES, WTI would need to fall another roughly $30, or about 33%, in under eight weeks. [OilPrice, May 6]

The selloff followed Trump's reversal on a previously paused U.S. naval escort plan; the announcement that Washington would actively assist stranded ships unblocked sentiment around the chokepoint that handles roughly a fifth of global seaborne crude. U.S.-Iran negotiations advanced in parallel, though talks faltered by May 7 as deal doubts resurfaced and prices ticked higher. CNN reported on May 4 that producers remain at maximum output with refineries at or near capacity, while Goldman Sachs projected last month that oil will hold above $90 a barrel through at least year-end on persistent structural tightness. [WSJ, May 3]

Average U.S. retail gasoline topped $4.50 per gallon — a near four-year high — on the same day WTI plunged, reflecting refining-margin lag rather than crude weakness at the wellhead. For crude oil (CL) hit (low) $60 by end of June, the implied path requires either a Hormuz-driven demand collapse, a sudden OPEC+ output surge, or a definitive U.S.-Iran nuclear agreement releasing barrels into the market. The OPEC basket still printed at $112.30 and Indian basket at $112.50 as of May 7, underscoring the gap between current physical pricing and the $60 threshold. Key catalysts ahead include Iran talk outcomes, durability of the Hormuz escort arrangement, and any OPEC+ signal on production adjustments. [CNN, May 4]

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