Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by May 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 8%: Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by May 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (8% YES). Michigan gas prices jump 90 cents in a week, closing in on record high.

What’s Happening

The probability that crude oil will reach a new all-time high by May 31 currently stands at just 8%, according to market data, as geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions continue to roil global energy markets. Brent crude, the international benchmark, surged past $126 per barrel on April 30, 2026, setting a new wartime high amid an escalating standoff between the United States and Iran. President Donald Trump has signaled an extended naval blockade of Iranian ports, demanding Tehran abandon its nuclear program, a move that has already driven U.S. gas prices to a four-year high. In Michigan, average gasoline prices jumped 90 cents in a week, hitting $4.86 per gallon on May 1, inching closer to the all-time record of $5.22 set in 2022. [Detroit Free Press, May 01]

The core question of whether crude oil will reach a new all-time high by May 31 hinges on the duration and intensity of the Iran blockade, which has already pushed Brent crude up roughly 30% in just two weeks. Analysts have raised their price forecasts sharply, with some predicting Brent could top $127 per barrel later this year if the Hormuz Strait stalemate persists. Traders on prediction platforms estimate a 63% chance that West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude will cross $120 per barrel, though the current all-time high for Brent—above $147 set in 2008—remains a distant target. The U.S.-Iran ceasefire announced in early April has collapsed, and diplomatic efforts have stalled, leaving supply routes through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for about a fifth of global oil, under constant threat. [CNBC, May 01]

Looking ahead, the path for crude oil to reach a new all-time high by May 31 remains steep, with the 92% NO probability reflecting the significant price gap that must be closed in under a month. Brent crude would need to rally another 17% from its current wartime high of $126 to surpass the $147 record, a feat that would require either a full blockade of Iranian exports or a broader conflict disrupting Middle Eastern output. The New York Times reported on April 30 that the Iran standoff shows "no end in sight," with President Trump vowing to maintain the blockade until Tehran capitulates. Meanwhile, the U.S. Energy Information Administration has warned that any prolonged disruption could push prices above $150, though such a scenario remains speculative. [New York Times, Apr 30]

Traded on Polymarket — $63K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($63K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 8c YES.