Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?

Prediction markets put the probability at 24%: Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (24% YES). At 445.0 million barrels, U.S.

What’s Happening

Physical crude oil prices touched all-time highs above $160 per barrel last month amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran war, which has removed roughly 14 million barrels per day — or 14% of global supply — from the market by disrupting flows from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE and other Gulf producers. Around 20% of global energy supplies transited the Strait of Hormuz before the conflict began. As of May 21, however, WTI had retreated to $97.39 and Brent to $104.10, well below the April peak, as Chinese import cuts and higher U.S. crude exports wrongfooted bullish positioning and eased the immediate squeeze on physical barrels. The pullback shapes the backdrop for whether crude oil reach a new all-time high by September 30 remains a live possibility. [Kitco, May 21]

Supply-side signals remain mixed. The EIA reported U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 7.9 million barrels in the week ending May 15, 2026, leaving stocks at 445.0 million barrels — still 2% above the five-year average. Crude imports averaged 6.0 million barrels per day, up 116,000 bpd week-over-week, while the trailing four-week pace ran 1.5% higher than the same period a year earlier. Separately, three supertankers carrying 6 million barrels exited the Strait of Hormuz on May 20, the first sizeable convoy clearance since the closure, signaling that incremental volumes are again reaching seaborne markets even as the broader corridor remains contested. [OilPrice, May 20]

ADNOC warned on May 21 that Gulf oil disruptions could persist into 2027, a forward guidance that keeps a structural bid under crude even as spot tape softens. ICIS flagged that elevated crude prices, combined with U.S. 30-year Treasury yields breaching 5% and core inflation running 3.8% year-on-year through April, are threatening U.S. GDP growth and could blunt demand into the second half. The path for whether crude oil reach a new all-time high by September 30 now hinges on whether a Hormuz reopening, OPEC+ spare capacity releases or a Chinese demand rebound outweigh the recent 5-6% pullback in sweet and sour grades. Traders are watching weekly EIA prints, tanker-tracking data out of the Strait, and any diplomatic movement on the Iran front for the next directional cue. [OilPrice, May 21]

Traded on Polymarket — $53K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($53K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 24c YES.