As of September 7, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027?” at 5% YES with $65K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is NO.
Prediction markets give a 5% probability to: will donald trump announce a presidential run before 2027?.
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/mo7/7 models agree on NO, fair value 10c vs market 5c. BUY NO at 5c — models see 5c of upside.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 98c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 75c | — |
| AI Claude Analysis | NO | 96c | 88% |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 95c | 72% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | NO | 82c | 42% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 90c | 85% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 92c | 78% |
7 of 7 models estimate NO fair value below market (75–98c vs 95c). Claude Analysis leads with 88% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 90c — market prices it at 95c. 5-point gap supports YES.
The single tracked wallet holds NO positions entered at 82c, reflecting a high-conviction bet against the event. This smart money entry near the current NO price signals confidence in the status quo, with no observed YES accumulation to challenge the bearish outlook.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x7c3d..6b | MM | NO | $1.9K | +16% |
All tracked YES positions are underwater, with the YES price at 5c, while NO positions are uniformly profitable at 82c, indicating strong market consensus against a Trump run before 2027. The dominant NO side's profitability suggests sustained selling pressure on YES, with price support likely weak near current levels unless new catalysts emerge.
Polymarket prices YES at 5c with $65K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 10c. 5-point gap suggests market may undervalue YES.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 5c | $65K |
| Our Model | 10c | — |