As of September 11, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027?” at 5% YES with $66K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is NO.
Prediction markets give a 5% probability to: will donald trump announce a presidential run before 2027?.
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/mo7/7 models agree on NO, fair value 10c vs market 5c. BUY NO at 5c — models see 5c of upside.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 97c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 75c | — |
| AI Claude Analysis | NO | 96c | 82% |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 95c | 78% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | NO | 82c | 42% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 90c | 85% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 95c | 78% |
7 of 7 models estimate NO fair value below market (75–97c vs 95c). Gemini Flash leads with 85% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 90c — market prices it at 95c. 5-point gap supports YES.
The single tracked wallet entered NO at 82c, positioning itself as smart money aligned with the dominant side. That entry signals conviction that Trump will not announce a run before 2027, and the wallet is already in profit as YES trades far below its entry. With only one tracked participant, the signal is thin but directionally consistent with the market's bearish YES stance.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x7c3d..6b | Retail | NO | $1.9K | +16% |
With YES at 5c, every YES holder is underwater while all NO positions are profitable, creating strong one-sided pressure against the YES side. The absence of any profitable YES entries means there is no natural bid support to lift the price, reinforcing the 5c floor as a likely ceiling for now. This dynamic favors continued NO dominance unless a catalyst forces a repricing.
Polymarket prices YES at 5c with $66K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 10c. 5-point gap suggests market may undervalue YES.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 5c | $66K |
| Our Model | 10c | — |