Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 60%: Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026. Currently, markets are divided (60% YES, 40% NO). US President Donald Trump has announced that the Strait of Hormuz will open once he signs the Memorandum of Understanding.

What’s Happening

As of June 6, 2026, the Strait of Hormuz has been choked off for 94 days, with only a handful of vessels transiting daily compared to the normal 100 cargo ships. The closure has cut off 20% of the world's oil supply, and shipping executives remain unwilling to risk the 21-mile-wide waterway despite repeated assurances from the White House. President Donald Trump announced on June 4 that the strait would reopen "bigger and better than it ever was" once Iran signs a Memorandum of Understanding to cease hostilities, framing the deal as the procedural trigger for any formal lifting announcement. [CNN, Jun 02]

The question whether Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026 hinges on diplomatic milestones still unresolved. Trump told reporters on June 3 that American forces had "swept mines and we've gotten most of them," and that the strait would open "immediately" upon Iran's signature, "subject to a couple of areas being cleaned out." Tehran has not publicly committed to a signing date. Wall Street analysts cited by Fortune on June 3 have grown skeptical, with oil prices climbing again and insurers refusing to underwrite tanker passage absent a verified ceasefire. [Fortune, Jun 03]

The ceasefire framework was tested on June 5 when the U.S. military shot down four Iranian drones launched toward the Strait of Hormuz, then struck Iranian coastal surveillance radar sites in retaliation. The escalation raises the procedural risk to any Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31 timeline, since a signed Memorandum of Understanding remains the administration's stated precondition. With roughly eight weeks remaining before the deadline, the outstanding milestones include Iranian signature, completed mine-sweeping verification, and restored insurance coverage for commercial tankers. Renewed kinetic exchanges threaten to reset that sequence. [LA Times, Jun 06]

Traded on Polymarket — $55K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($55K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 60c YES.