Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 18%: Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (18% YES). Trump Says Iran Wants Hormuz Open in Tussle Over War’s End.

What’s Happening

President Donald Trump has publicly stated that Iran is in a “state of collapse” and seeking a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but he has so far rejected Tehran’s interim proposal to lift the U.S. naval blockade. On April 28, 2026, Trump claimed Iran asked the U.S. to end the blockade while negotiating an end to the two-month war, which has driven U.S. gas prices to their highest level in four years. However, the very next day, April 29, 2026, Trump told Axios he would not lift the blockade until a comprehensive nuclear deal is secured, explicitly rejecting a proposal that would have reopened the strait but delayed nuclear talks. This deadlock has left global energy markets in turmoil, with the UAE announcing it will leave OPEC in May as the conflict reshapes oil supply chains. [Claims Journal, Apr 28] [World Oil, Apr 29]

The political stakes are high for the White House as the standoff over the Strait of Hormuz enters its third month. Trump’s decision to maintain the blockade—imposed on April 13, 2026—has become a central issue in the ongoing conflict, with Iran signaling it will not open the strait as long as the blockade remains. The president’s rejection of the interim deal suggests he is prioritizing a long-term nuclear agreement over short-term relief for global energy markets, a calculation that carries significant electoral risk as midterm elections approach. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has been involved in weighing Iran’s peace offer, but no formal vote or legislative action has been taken in Congress to authorize or challenge the blockade. [Yahoo Finance, Apr 28] [USA Today, Apr 28]

Looking ahead, the key question is whether Trump will announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026. The current probability of such an announcement stands at 18%, reflecting widespread skepticism that a deal can be reached in the next three weeks. Trump has said he will address Iran’s proposal “soon,” but his public statements suggest he is unwilling to compromise on the nuclear issue. If the blockade remains in place, the energy crisis is likely to deepen, further pressuring the administration as it faces a potential vote on war powers or sanctions legislation in the House. The next procedural milestone will be any formal proposal from Iran or a White House statement outlining terms for lifting the blockade. [New York Post, Apr 28]

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