AI consensus leaned NO with STRONG conviction — 6 of 6 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayesian Update | NO | 19c |
62%
|
|
| PIN Model | NO | 23c |
54%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 18c |
64%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 8c |
85%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 25c |
65%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 12c |
90%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 18c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x4488..19 ★ | MM | YES | $1.1K | +28% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$1,149 on $1.1K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 12c | $2.4M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 18c | — | ✓ matched |