Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?

Q: What are the current odds for 'Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?'?

As of April 2026, prediction markets price this at 66% YES on Polymarket with $443K in total trading volume.

Q: What does smart money say about 'Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?'?

OddsShift tracks 2 smart money wallets on this market. The dominant position among tracked wallets is NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability and win rate across Polymarket.

Q: What do AI models predict for 'Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?'?

OddsShift runs mathematical models (Bayesian Update, PIN, Compound Signal) plus independent AI models (Claude, DeepSeek, Grok, Gemini, Kimi) on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 73c YES. 3 models agree on direction. See full model breakdown on the market page.

YES

66c

34c

Prediction markets put the probability at 66%: Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026. Currently, markets are divided (66% YES, 34% NO).

Down from 72% to 66% since 2026-04-19 (-6pp)

Traded on Polymarket — $443K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 66c YES with $443K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.

Trade this market on Polymarket →

Last updated: April 26, 2026, 22:06 UTC

OddsShift analysis: 5 AI models + 2 tracked wallets. Track record: 12/12 correct directional calls across 12 resolved markets.

PRO Analysis

What does smart money think? Get AI verdicts, wallet positioning, signal analysis, and entry targets.

CONFLICTING OUR VERDICT

HOLD

Smart money wallets positioned NO, but 3/7 models estimate YES. Signals conflict — waiting for consolidation.

— TARGET YIELD

Models Are Divided on This Market

Model	Says	Fair Value estimated fair price	Confidence
MATH PIN Model	YES	98c	—
MATH Compound Signal	YES	56c	—
AI Claude Analysis	NO	92c	75%
AI DeepSeek Quant	NO	65c	65%
AI Grok Contrarian	NO	65c	70%
AI Gemini Flash	???	65c	55%
AI Kimi Macro	YES	66c	77%

3 of 7 models estimate YES fair value above market (56–98c vs 66c). Kimi Macro leads with 77% confidence.

Models estimate fair value of YES at 73c — market prices it at 66c. 7-point gap supports YES.

Why One Model Disagrees: Claude Analysis dissents at 8c — Market asks if Trump will announce a blockade was 'lifted' — this presupposes a blockade exists, which it does not. No US blockade of Hor...

2 Active Wallets on This Market

Smart money is exclusively long YES despite the dominant_side flag reading NO — a divergence that typically means retail/MM flow is fading the alpha cohort. The 58c-78c entry band brackets current price, signaling wallets view 66c as fair value for a Hormuz-lift announcement rather than a directional breakout setup.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0x12d6..a8	MM	YES	$11.9K	+16%
This Market Entered at 58c → now 66c (+16%), $11.9K on YES Activity · 4 events · Apr 24 → Apr 26 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 24BUYYES60+$8,514$8,514 Apr 24SELLYES63−$752$8,160 Apr 25BUYYES53+$2,489$9,354 Apr 26BUYYES53+$115$9,468 Realized+$34 Unrealized+$1,458 Total Profit+$1,492 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1344) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x7c3d..6b	MM	YES	$1.1K	-8%
This Market Entered at 78c → now 66c (-8%), $1.1K on YES Activity · 3 events · Apr 21 → Apr 23 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 21BUYYES82+$2,723$2,723 Apr 22SELLYES81−$2,119$581 Apr 23BUYYES65+$648$1,112 Realized−$18 Unrealized−$194 Total Profit−$212 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1406) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

See all 69 alpha wallets → · Learn about copy trading →

50% of YES Positions Are in Profit

YES holders averaged 58c-78c entries against current 66c, leaving roughly half above water and the cohort marginally net-positive. With no NO entries tracked among smart money, there's no profitable downside conviction defending lower prices, suggesting 66c has soft support but limited upside fuel.

Profit/Loss by Side

YES positions

50% in profit

NO positions

0% in profit

Polymarket and Kalshi Disagree by 12 Cents

Significant 12-cent gap: Polymarket at 66c vs Kalshi at 54c. Polymarket traders see a substantially different probability. Our model estimates fair value at 73c.

Platform	YES Price	Volume
Polymarket	66c	$443K
Kalshi	54c	—
Our Model	73c	—

Back to Market Radar

Related Markets

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?

As of April 2026, Polymarket prices this at 66% YES with $443K in total volume.

Where can I bet on Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?

This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.

What does smart money say about Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?

OddsShift tracks 2 smart money wallets on this market. Dominant position: NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.

What do AI models predict for Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?

OddsShift runs mathematical + AI models on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 73c YES. 3 models agree on direction.