Prediction markets put the probability at 58%: Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026. Currently, markets are divided (58% YES, 42% NO). Home › ABC 21.04.2026.
President Donald Trump announced on April 21, 2026, that he was extending a ceasefire with Iran indefinitely, just hours before it was set to expire, even as a fresh round of peace talks collapsed. In a Truth Social post, Trump reiterated that the U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would remain in place until a comprehensive deal is reached with Tehran. The extension came after Iran publicly stated that any ceasefire is "meaningless" unless the blockade is lifted, framing the U.S. action as an act of war. The same day, Iran attacked at least three ships in the strait, escalating tensions despite the truce. [World Oil, Apr 21] [NPR, Apr 22]
The blockade, initiated by Trump on April 12, 2026, has become the central sticking point in U.S.-Iran negotiations. Trump claimed on social media that Iran is losing $500 million a day due to the blockade and that Tehran’s public opposition is merely an attempt to "save face." However, Iran’s effective closure of the strait—through attacks on commercial shipping—has emerged as the war’s most consequential development, disrupting global oil flows and raising the stakes for any potential donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by may 31, scenario. The New York Times noted that Iran’s leaders can afford to be patient, as the blockade has not forced a breakthrough. [Forbes, Apr 22] [NYT, Apr 22]
Looking ahead, the key procedural milestone is the May 31, 2026 deadline for any potential donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by may 31, event. Trump has publicly stated the blockade will not be lifted without a deal, but the indefinite ceasefire extension provides a window for renewed diplomacy. Iran’s demand for the blockade’s removal as a precondition for talks remains a major hurdle. Any announcement of a lift would require either a dramatic shift in negotiations or a unilateral executive decision by Trump, likely triggering intense political debate in Congress over the administration’s war powers. [Modern Ghana, Apr 21]
Polymarket prices this at 58c YES with $533K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.
What does smart money think? Get AI verdicts, wallet positioning, signal analysis, and entry targets.
Unlock PRO — $29/moSmart money wallets positioned NO, but 3/6 models estimate YES. Signals conflict — waiting for consolidation.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | YES | 98c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | YES | 52c | — |
| AI Claude Analysis | NO | 82c | 75% |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 75c | 70% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | NO | 65c | 70% |
| AI Kimi Macro | YES | 58c | 75% |
3 of 6 models estimate YES fair value above market (52–98c vs 58c). Kimi Macro leads with 75% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of YES at 69c — market prices it at 58c. 11-point gap supports YES.
Smart money YES entries at 58c-78c imply wallets bought into a blockade-lifted narrative that has stalled, with the dominant NO side signaling skepticism that Trump announces a lift by May 31. The 78c top-of-range entry now sitting -20% underwater is the tell: tracked wallets mistimed the announcement window, and price is drifting toward NO's structural thesis.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x12d6..a8 | MM | YES | $10.5K | +1% | |
| 0x0845..6f | MM | YES | $1.4K | -6% | |
| 0x7c3d..6b | MM | YES | $1.0K | -13% |
Only 33% of YES holders are above water with entries clustered 58c-78c at current 58c price, meaning two-thirds are flat-to-underwater near cost basis. Thin profitability and absence of NO P&L data suggest weak conviction support — YES side is bleeding while NO has no tracked exposure to defend the dominant-side read.
Polymarket prices YES at 58c while Kalshi has it at 54c — a 4-cent gap. Polymarket traders are more bullish on YES. Our model estimates fair value at 69c.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 58c | $533K |
| Kalshi | 54c | — |
| Our Model | 69c | — |