AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 6 of 7 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 27c |
46%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 5c |
88%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 8c |
85%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | YES | 15c |
60%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 15c |
65%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 8c |
92%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 11c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
The lone tracked wallet's 95c NO entry signals smart money treating a Trump blockade-lifted announcement by May 8 as a near-impossibility, consistent with the structural Iran/Hormuz NO thesis. No YES-side smart money participation reinforces that the 8c residual is retail tail-risk pricing, not informed conviction.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xbacd..35 | MM | NO | $20.0K | — |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$1,242 on $20.0K capital deployed (avg +6.2%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 6c | $2.0M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 11c | — | ✓ matched |