Prediction markets put the probability at 8%: Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (8% YES). Trump Says Iran Wants Hormuz Open in Tussle Over War’s End.
President Donald Trump has publicly stated that Iran is in a "state of collapse" and seeking a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, but he has firmly rejected an interim proposal from Tehran that would have lifted the blockade without addressing Iran's nuclear program. In an interview with Axios on April 29, 2026, Trump explicitly refused to lift the naval blockade, which has been in place since April 13, 2026, until a comprehensive deal on nuclear capabilities is secured. This stance has deepened the two-month conflict, causing a global energy crisis and sending U.S. gas prices to their highest level in four years. The president’s rejection of the Iranian offer came despite warnings from his own administration that Iran’s economy is under severe strain, with Trump alleging that Iranian officials have admitted to a "state of collapse" and are desperate for the blockade to end. [World Oil, Apr 29] [New York Post, Apr 28]
The political and economic stakes of this standoff are immense, as the blockade has effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for roughly 20% of the world's oil supply. On April 28, 2026, Trump confirmed that Iran had asked the U.S. to lift the blockade as part of negotiations to end the war, but he framed the request as a sign of Iranian weakness rather than a basis for compromise. The United Arab Emirates has announced it will leave OPEC in May 2026, a move directly linked to the reshaping of global oil markets caused by the conflict. With U.S. gas prices surging and no diplomatic breakthrough in sight, the question of whether Trump will announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026 remains highly uncertain, as the president has signaled he will address the Iranian proposal "soon" but has given no timeline for a decision. [Yahoo Finance, Apr 28] [USA Today, Apr 28]
Looking ahead, the key procedural milestone is the May 8, 2026 deadline, which falls just days after Trump’s latest rejection of Iran’s interim proposal. The White House has not scheduled a formal announcement or legislative vote on the blockade, but the president’s claim that he will address the proposal "soon" suggests a potential shift in strategy could come before that date. Any decision to lift the blockade would require either an executive order from Trump or a negotiated settlement with Iran, both of which remain politically fraught given the ongoing war and the president’s insistence on linking the blockade to nuclear talks. For now, the probability of Trump announcing that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026 remains low, as the administration appears committed to maintaining maximum pressure on Tehran. [Claims Journal, Apr 28
Polymarket prices this at 8c YES with $123K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.Traded on Polymarket — $123K Volume
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