As of September 1, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will Elena Rybakina win the 2026 Women’s US Open?” at 25% YES with $424K traded. No tracked wallet holds a position on this market, so there is no verdict.
Prediction markets put the probability at 7%: Will Elena Rybakina win the 2026 Women’s US Open. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (7% YES). Pegula will provide an easier opponent for Rybakina.
Kazakhstan's Elena Rybakina, seeded No. 2, entered the 2026 US Open as one of several contenders behind top seed Aryna Sabalenka, who is chasing a hard-court three-peat in New York. The women's draw, released on Aug. 27, placed Rybakina in a quarter where she could meet former World No. 1 Iga Swiatek in the quarterfinals. Rybakina arrived carrying a leg injury sustained at the Cincinnati Open roughly two weeks earlier but stated she was healthy enough to compete. Earlier in 2026 she won the Australian Open, defeating Sabalenka in the final, giving the Elena Rybakina Women's US Open storyline added weight ahead of the season's final major. [Sports, Aug 27]
Bookmakers and modeling outlets positioned Rybakina as a mid-tier favorite rather than a front-runner. As of Sep. 1, DraftKings-based projections listed her at roughly a 5% chance to win the title, trailing Sabalenka (24%), Coco Gauff (16%), Iga Swiatek (15%) and Jessica Pegula (8%). Sportsbook odds compiled on Aug. 29 priced Rybakina at +1700, behind Sabalenka (+340), Gauff (+500) and Swiatek (+550). Sabalenka had not captured a major in 2026 but collected titles in Miami, Indian Wells and Brisbane, keeping her atop the WTA rankings entering the tournament. [Covers, Sep 01]
The tournament also carries ranking stakes, with the No. 1 position in women's tennis in contention among the top seeds. Analysts projecting the Elena Rybakina Women's US Open path noted that a potential final against Pegula would favor Rybakina, who leads their head-to-head series 6-3; Pegula has never won a Grand Slam and lost the Cincinnati final in straight sets to Gauff. The 27-year-old Rybakina said she was not focused on rankings, adding, "I don't check the standings." Reaching the final would put her in position for a third Grand Slam title and a possible move to the top of the WTA rankings, contingent on managing her injury through the draw. [USA Today, Aug 31]
None of the 166 tracked wallets holds a position here, so the Radar makes no call — price, volume and news above are live. When a tracked wallet takes a position, this page gets a verdict.
See the markets with a verdict →