Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?

As of September 3, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?” at 82% YES with $267K traded. 2 tracked wallets hold a position here; the dominant side is YES.

Prediction markets put the probability at 78%: Will STRC hit $100 by December 31. Currently, markets see this as likely (78% YES).

What’s Happening

Prediction market participants have sharply revised their outlook on Strategy Inc.'s Series A Perpetual Preferred Stock, known as STRC, with the probability of the instrument hitting $100 by December 31 now standing at 78%, up from 66.5% in mid-August and just 36% a week prior to that. The surge follows a series of aggressive capital moves by the company, including the purchase of 4,603 bitcoins for $370 million and the repurchase of $152 million of its own STRC shares on August 31, 2026. These actions, led by Executive Chairman Michael Saylor, have bolstered confidence in the firm's ability to support the preferred stock's price, which is designed to trade near par through a variable monthly dividend rate. The company now holds 845,050 bitcoins and $6.71 billion in cash, maintaining a net leverage of 0.0%, according to financial disclosures from the same period. [Pluang, Mon Aug 31]

The path toward the $100 target has been volatile, reflecting broader bitcoin price swings and concerns about dividend sustainability. In early June, STRC traded as low as $90.38 during a selloff that pushed bitcoin below $60,000, raising questions about whether Strategy could service its roughly 11.5% APY dividend across its preferred stock series, which carry combined annual obligations of $750 million to $800 million. By August 21, 2026, the stock had rebounded above $96 for the first time since June, climbing alongside a bitcoin recovery. However, a subsequent August 31 filing revealed that Strategy's bitcoin per diluted share fell by 0.526% after spending $202.5 million on buybacks and dividends and $369.7 million on new bitcoin purchases, causing diluted share counts to rise faster than the company's bitcoin hoard. This metric decline briefly pressured short-term odds for a September 30 target, but longer-dated expectations for the December 31 deadline continued to firm. [The Block, Fri Aug 21]

The key question for market participants is whether Strategy can sustain STRC's price at or above $100 through year-end without further dilutive issuance or excessive cash burn. A Monday, August 10 report noted that Strategy sold 1,690 bitcoins below cost to bring STRC within $4.45 of par, a move that highlighted the tension between maintaining the preferred stock's value and preserving bitcoin exposure. The company's cash reserve, which stood at roughly $900 million in early June after shrinking from $2.25 billion at the start of 2026, has since been replenished to $6.71 billion following the latest capital raises and bitcoin sales. Analysts are watching whether Strategy will reduce its 12% dividend on STRC once the stock trades at or above $100 in a sustained manner, a condition management has indicated would precede any such recommendation. The next major catalyst will be monthly bitcoin yield data and any additional share repurchases or preferred issuances before the December 31 deadline. [Techtimes, Mon Aug 10]

Traded on Polymarket — $267K Volume