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Resolves: Jan 2027 ended Volume: $284K

Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?

YES
95c
NO
5c

As of August 30, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?” at 95% YES with $284K traded. No tracked smart-money wallet holds a position on this market yet.

Prediction markets put the probability at 72%: Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026. Currently, markets see this as likely (72% YES).

Up from 84% to 95% since 2026-08-14 (+11pp)

Traded on Polymarket — $284K Volume

Trade this market on Polymarket →
OddsShift analysis: up to 5 AI models + 166 tracked wallets on every market with smart-money data. Verdict track record published on the accuracy page.

No tracked smart-money positions on this market yet

OddsShift follows 166 on-chain Polymarket wallets, tiered daily by their record on resolved markets. When one of them takes a position here, this page gets the wallet table, model fair value and a verdict.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?
As of September 2026, Polymarket prices this at 95% YES with $284K in total volume.

Where can I bet on Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?
This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.