As of September 3, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will Iga Swiatek win the 2026 Women’s US Open?” at 14% YES with $101K traded. No tracked wallet holds a position on this market, so there is no verdict.
Prediction markets put the probability at 14%: Will Iga Swiatek win the 2026 Women’s US Open. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (14% YES). Iga Swiatek is favored to win the 2026 women's U.S.
As of late August 2026, the women’s singles draw at the US Open features Iga Swiatek as the No. 8 seed, a positioning that reflects a challenging season marked by her first title of the year at the Canadian Open and a semifinal run in Cincinnati. Despite that ranking, oddsmakers list Swiatek as the second favorite behind Aryna Sabalenka, with outright odds of 11/2 at the time of the tournament’s start. Swiatek’s 2026 win rate stands at 80.5%, trailing only Sabalenka among active players, and she carries the distinction of being the only woman in the field with a prior US Open title, having won the event in 2022 against Ons Jabeur [Sports Illustrated, Aug 29].
The market’s 14% probability for Swiatek to win the 2026 Women’s US Open reflects a confluence of factors, most notably the dominant form of Aryna Sabalenka, who has won the last two US Open titles and leads the women’s market throughout the year. Sabalenka’s consistency, coupled with Elena Rybakina’s Australian Open victory in January and Coco Gauff’s strong run through Cincinnati, has compressed the field’s chances. Swiatek’s path is further complicated by a projected quarterfinal meeting with Rybakina, who withdrew from Cincinnati due to an apparent Achilles injury but remains a two-time Grand Slam champion and a significant threat on hard courts [ESPN, Aug 28].
Looking ahead, the outcome of the 2026 Women’s US Open hinges on Swiatek’s ability to sustain the confidence she regained in Toronto and Cincinnati against a top-heavy draw. Her quarterfinal clash with Rybakina is scheduled for the second week, and a victory there would likely set up a semifinal against either Sabalenka or Gauff, both of whom have beaten her on hard courts this season. Swiatek’s six Grand Slam titles, including her 2022 US Open crown, provide a historical baseline, but her No. 8 seeding and the depth of the current top five suggest that any title run would require defeating at least two top-10 opponents in succession [Independent, Sep 3].
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