AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 5 of 6 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 21c |
58%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 43c |
14%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 21c |
72%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | ??? | 45c |
55%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 58c |
60%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 38c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market. NO wallets entered between 73c.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xde04..37 | Retail | NO | $3.2K | -16% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$1,186 on $3.2K capital deployed (avg +37.2%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 42c | $353.6K | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 38c | — | ✓ matched |