Will Josh Hawley vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?

As of November 3, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will Josh Hawley vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?” at 5% YES with $57K traded. No tracked wallet holds a position on this market, so there is no verdict.

Prediction markets put the probability at 5%: Will Josh Hawley vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (5% YES). But the vote arithmetic is unforgiving.

What’s Happening

The Senate blocked the CLARITY Act on September 15, 2026, when cloture on the motion to proceed to H.R. 3633 failed 49-50, eleven votes short of the 60 needed under Senate Rule XXII. All 49 yes votes came from Republicans, while Collins, Hawley, Moran and Tillis voted no; Tillis then moved to reconsider. The failed procedural vote followed months of stalled negotiations over ethics and illicit-finance provisions, and it effectively forecloses near-term floor action on the crypto market-structure bill. Whether Josh Hawley votes "yea" on the Clarity Act has been moot at the procedural stage, since the Missouri Republican has consistently opposed the measure. [The Defiant, Sep 15]

The vote arithmetic had been unforgiving for months. Republicans hold 53 seats, but with Hawley and Rand Paul expected to vote no on substantive grounds, only 51 reliable Republican votes remained. Just two Democrats — Ruben Gallego of Arizona and Angela Alsobrooks of Maryland — publicly backed the bill, leaving supporters at 53 and roughly seven Democratic votes short of cloture. Senator Cynthia Lummis said even Republican support would not be unanimous, calling Hawley "really resistant" after he declined to back the GENIUS Act last year. The bill had cleared the Senate Banking Committee 15-9 on May 14, 2026, and the House 294-134 on July 17, 2025, but sat on the Senate calendar since June 1 without a floor vote. [24/7 Wall St., Aug 02]

Attention now shifts to the narrowed legislative calendar and the bill's remaining path. The Senate had roughly five working days before the August recess, and leadership acknowledged the bill would not pass before then. Galaxy Research lowered its passage odds to 60% in June, conditioned on a credible floor commitment and signs that ethics and illicit-finance questions had been bridged with a solid block of 9+ Democratic votes. Those conditions were never met, and the September cloture failure leaves sponsors weighing whether to strip contested provisions and retry the vote or accept that Josh Hawley votes "yea" on the Clarity Act remains a hypothetical absent a substantially rewritten bill. [Galaxy, Jun 09]

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