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Resolves: Jan 2027 2 months left Volume: $4.3M

Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

NO
95c
YES
5c

As of October 19, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?” at 5% YES with $4.3M traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is NO.

Prediction markets give a 5% probability to: will kylian mbappé win the 2026 ballon d'or?.

Down from 17% to 5% since 2026-06-28 (-12pp)

Traded on Polymarket — $4.3M Volume

Trade this market on Polymarket →
On this market: 6/7 models independently agree NO — rare convergence. Full verdict track record on the accuracy page.
PRO Analysis

See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.

HOLD · NO ENTRY AI VERDICT
HOLD

6/7 models agree on NO, fair value 12c vs market 5c. BUY NO at 5c — models see 7c of upside.

— TARGET YIELD

6 of 7 Models Agree: NO

ModelSaysFair Value estimated fair priceConfidence
MATH PIN ModelNO98c—
MATH Compound SignalNO75c—
AI DeepSeek QuantNO94c
78%
AI Grok ContrarianNO82c
62%
AI Gemini FlashNO90c
85%
AI Kimi MacroNO92c
72%
AI Claude Analysis???—
0%

6 of 7 models estimate NO fair value below market (75–98c vs 95c). Gemini Flash leads with 85% confidence.

Models estimate fair value of NO at 88c — market prices it at 95c. 7-point gap supports YES.

Why One Model Is Uncertain: Claude Analysis at Nonec — not available tonight (Claude CLI session limit or nightly cap)

1 Active Wallets on This Market

The single tracked wallet is positioned exclusively on NO at 93c, signaling strong bearish conviction against Mbappé's 2026 Ballon d'Or chances. With no YES entries recorded, smart money shows no appetite for the longshot, reinforcing the downward pressure on YES pricing.

WalletCategorySideAmountP&L
0x24de..cbMMNO$1.5K+2%
See all 90 tracked wallets →  ·  Learn about copy trading →

All NO Positions Are in Profit

With YES at 5c, every YES holder is underwater while all NO positions entered at 93c are in profit, creating a strongly one-sided P&L picture. The 93c NO entry leaves only 7c of upside but reflects high conviction that Mbappé will not win the 2026 Ballon d'Or. Price support sits firmly on the NO side, with little incentive for YES accumulation at current levels.

Profit/Loss by Side
YES positions
0% in profit
NO positions
100% in profit

Polymarket: 5c YES — $4.3M Volume

Polymarket prices YES at 5c with $4.3M in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 12c. 7-point gap suggests market may undervalue YES.

PlatformYES PriceVolume
Polymarket5c$4.3M
Our Model12c—
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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
As of October 2026, Polymarket prices this at 5% YES with $4.3M in total volume.

Where can I bet on Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.

What does smart money say about Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
OddsShift tracks 1 smart money wallet on this market. Dominant position: NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.

What do AI models predict for Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
OddsShift runs mathematical + AI models on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 12c YES. 6 models agree on direction.