AI verdict was HOLD — no directional call. Market resolved YES at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | YES | 96c |
90%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | YES | 92c |
88%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | NO | 18c |
72%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | YES | 99c |
99%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | YES | 85c |
75%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 65c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.
The single tracked wallet is positioned exclusively on NO at 11c, a deep out-of-the-money entry that has already paid off handsomely. That entry signals smart money expects no rent freeze before 2027, treating the 67c YES price as overvalued. With no YES entries from tracked wallets, the directional signal is firmly bearish for the freeze outcome.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x44c1..c1 | MM | NO | $1.0K | +137% |
Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$1,015 on $1.0K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 67c | $294.2K | 100c | |
| AI Consensus | 65c | — | ✓ matched |