Will Maxx Crosby play for Chicago Bears next?

Prediction markets put the probability at 6%: Will Maxx Crosby play for Chicago Bears next. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (6% YES). What is unclear is whether Crosby will play in 2026 under his current contract.

What’s Happening

The probability that Maxx Crosby plays for Chicago Bears next stands at 6% YES, reflecting a market that has priced in significant obstacles to a trade. Speculation intensified in early March 2026 when CBS Sports reported that the Las Vegas Raiders, under general manager John Spytek, were listening to offers for the star pass rusher, with the Bears and Dallas Cowboys emerging as leading suitors. However, the trajectory shifted dramatically on March 11, 2026, when ESPN reported that a proposed trade sending Crosby to the Baltimore Ravens was canceled after concerns arose during his physical examination, specifically regarding his recently surgically repaired knee. That canceled deal effectively reset the market, as teams now weigh whether Crosby can return to his previous form at only two months removed from surgery, with benchmarks still to clear before he is eligible to play. [ESPN, Mar 11]

For the Bears, the pursuit of Maxx Crosby play for Chicago Bears next has been a central storyline of their offseason, but the financial and asset costs are steep. The Athletic noted on March 3, 2026 that Chicago already sent its 2019 and 2020 first-round picks to the Raiders in the original Khalil Mack trade, a deal that yielded players like Justin Jefferson and Tee Higgins for other teams — a cautionary tale about opportunity cost. To clear room, the Bears traded wide receiver D.J. Moore to the Buffalo Bills on March 5, 2026, a move that Silver and Black Pride reported was designed to free salary cap space for a potential Crosby acquisition. Yet Crosby’s current contract, a three-year, $109.5 million extension signed in March 2025, carries a $35.5 million average annual value, which is now more than $10 million below the top of the market but still a major commitment for a player with an unresolved knee issue. [The Athletic, Mar 03]

The market’s 94% NO outcome suggests that the canceled Ravens trade, combined with lingering medical uncertainty, has cooled Chicago’s chances. Fox Sports reported on March 4, 2026 that teams were actively calling the Raiders and that Las Vegas was listening, but the failed physical with Baltimore has introduced a new variable: if Crosby is unwilling to play in 2026 under his current contract, or if teams remain concerned about his knee, the Bears may pivot to other pass-rush options. What happens next hinges on Crosby’s rehabilitation progress and whether the Raiders lower their asking price, which was reportedly high enough to scuttle the Ravens deal. If Crosby clears medical benchmarks by late spring, a trade could resurface, but as of now, the market assigns only a 6% probability that Maxx Crosby play for Chicago Bears next. [Fox Sports, Mar 04]

Traded on Polymarket — $297K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 6c YES with $297K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.