As of September 20, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026?” at 5% YES with $118K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is NO.
Prediction markets give a 5% probability to: will mohammed bin salman cease to be the de facto leader of saudi arabia by december 31, 2026?.
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/mo6/7 models agree on NO, fair value 9c vs market 5c. Weak edge — consider waiting for stronger signal.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 97c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 75c | — |
| AI Claude Analysis | NO | 97c | 90% |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 96c | 88% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | ??? | 18c | 42% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 90c | 85% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 92c | 92% |
6 of 7 models estimate NO fair value below market (75–97c vs 95c). Kimi Macro leads with 92% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 91c — market prices it at 95c. 4-point gap supports YES.
The single tracked wallet entered NO at 95c, signaling strong conviction that Mohammed bin Salman remains de facto leader through end-2026. That entry offers minimal return (5c max) for substantial capital at risk, consistent with a high-confidence, low-yield bet rather than speculative positioning. With only one wallet tracked and no YES entries, smart-money flow is one-sided toward NO, reinforcing the dominant NO direction.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xcaab..dd | Retail | NO | $1.2K | 0% |
With YES at 5c, NO buyers at 95c are underwater on a mark-to-market basis since NO would need to resolve at 100c to profit, leaving 0% of NO in profit and 0% of YES in profit. The absence of profitable positions on either side reflects a market priced near certainty of NO, with thin upside for NO holders and deep downside for YES. This structure supports the 5c YES price as a low-probability tail, with little capital incentivized to push it higher.
Polymarket prices YES at 5c with $118K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 9c. 4-point gap suggests market may undervalue YES.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 5c | $118K |
| Our Model | 9c | — |