As of October 23, 2026, Polymarket prices “France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026?” at 14% YES with $335K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is NO.
Prediction markets give a 14% probability to: france declares state of emergency by december 31, 2026?.
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/mo6/7 models agree on NO, fair value 15c vs market 14c. Weak edge — consider waiting for stronger signal.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 98c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 71c | — |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 88c | 68% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | NO | 78c | 61% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 85c | 75% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 88c | 78% |
| AI Claude Analysis | ??? | — | 0% |
6 of 7 models estimate NO fair value below market (71–98c vs 86c). Kimi Macro leads with 78% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 85c — market prices it at 86c. 1-point gap supports YES.
The single tracked wallet is positioned exclusively on NO at 85c, a late-stage entry that signals conviction the state of emergency will not materialize by the deadline. With no YES entries recorded, there is no counterbalancing smart-money flow, leaving the NO side as the only informed positioning in the market.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x55b4..ea | Smart | NO | $12.0K | +1% |
With YES at 14c, every YES holder is underwater while the sole NO position entered at 85c is sitting on a 15c gain, meaning NO buyers have captured the entire move toward the low-probability outcome. This asymmetry creates little incentive for YES holders to add support, and the profitable NO side has no pressure to exit, reinforcing the drift toward 14c or lower.
Polymarket prices YES at 14c with $335K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 15c. 1-point gap is within normal range — no significant mispricing.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 14c | $335K |
| Our Model | 15c | — |