AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction (5 of 5 models). Outcome went the other way: YES won.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 18c |
72%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | NO | 18c |
72%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 25c |
75%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 5c |
82%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | ??? | — |
0%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 14c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.
The single tracked wallet entered NO at 16c, a deep-value contrarian bet that has since paid off substantially as the market moved against the $1.25T valuation. That entry signals conviction that OpenAI's valuation would fall well short of the high threshold, and the lack of any YES entries from tracked wallets reinforces the bearish lean. Smart money here is positioned firmly against the HIGH scenario.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x4337..82 | MM | NO | $1.9K | +121% |
Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$1,897 on $1.9K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 64c | $136.2K | 100c | |
| AI Consensus | 14c | — | × missed |