Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 40%: Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31. Currently, markets are divided (40% YES, 60% NO). That’s because the valuation of just three startups, SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic, have exploded over the last year.

What’s Happening

OpenAI's last reported private valuation stands at $852 billion, already above the $750 billion threshold referenced in this market, following a secondary share sale that closed earlier in 2026. The figure was confirmed in multiple May reports surrounding the company's IPO preparations and Elon Musk's failed court challenge against the firm's for-profit restructuring. By comparison, rival Anthropic was last valued at $380 billion and is reportedly in talks to raise $300 billion at a $900 billion valuation, while SpaceX is tipped to go public at over $1.5 trillion following its February merger with xAI. [Forbes, May 14]

On May 20, 2026, Reuters and the Wall Street Journal reported that OpenAI is preparing to confidentially file for a U.S. initial public offering within weeks, with bankers from Goldman Sachs among the firms working on the deal. The filing follows two days after OpenAI fended off Musk's lawsuit, removing a major overhang on the company's corporate restructuring. The question of whether openai's valuation hit (low) $750b by december 31 is largely contingent on whether the most recent $852 billion private mark holds through year-end pricing or is revised in IPO roadshow documentation, which typically narrows valuation bands before listing. [HuffPost, May 20]

CNBC reported on May 20 that traders shifted their expectations to favor OpenAI over Anthropic in the IPO race following the confidential filing reports, reversing prior sentiment. Whether openai's valuation hit (low) $750b by december 31 resolves YES depends on the official valuation marker used at resolution — secondary sale prints, an S-1 filing range, or a first-day IPO close. Anthropic's reported $900 billion raise, backed in part by a $30 billion investment discussed alongside its Gates Foundation healthcare partnership announced May 18, adds competitive pressure that could influence OpenAI's pricing strategy through the remainder of 2026. [CNBC, May 20]

Traded on Polymarket — $62K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($62K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 35c YES.