Prediction markets put the probability at 11%: Will Rodri join Real Madrid. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (11% YES). Football star Rodri has reportedly agreed to join FC Barcelona, according to transfer expert Gerard Romero's Jijantes outlet.
The probability of Rodri joining Real Madrid has plummeted to 11% following a series of reports on Thursday, August 6, 2026, indicating the Manchester City midfielder has instead chosen FC Barcelona. According to transfer expert Gerard Romero's Jijantes outlet, Rodri approved Hansi Flick's project after a personal call from the Barça boss, a decision that came after the breakdown of transfer talks between Manchester City and Real Madrid over the player's fee. While City sought $86.5 million, Madrid's offer of $57.6 million was rejected, and Barça is now reportedly being offered Rodri for a reduced $69 million [Forbes, Aug 06].
The 29-year-old Ballon d'Or winner, who captained Spain to World Cup glory in the summer, is entering the final year of his contract at the Etihad Stadium and has yet to sign fresh terms. Multiple outlets, including Marca and AS USA, report that Rodri has officially informed Real Madrid officials of his decision, effectively terminating any ongoing discussions with the La Liga giants. The move has sent shockwaves through Spanish football, with Goal.com noting that Frenkie de Jong's surgery has opened the door for a potential €50 million raid on City, as Rodri has reportedly given the green light to a sensational Barcelona move [Goal, Aug 06].
This development marks a dramatic shift in the transfer saga, as Real Madrid had been in talks with City for weeks and presented Rodri with a significant financial offer in recent days. However, the midfielder's preference for Barcelona's project, combined with the fee disagreement between City and Madrid, has made the prospect of Rodri joining Real Madrid increasingly unlikely. Manchester City are now bracing for his exit and are reportedly targeting Ayyoud Bouaddi after landing Elliot Anderson, while Barcelona's pursuit is expected to accelerate following Rodri's clear signal of intent [BBC News, Aug 06].
Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($85K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 11c YES.
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