As of October 21, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?” at 90% YES with $55K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is YES.
Prediction markets give a 90% probability to: will russia and ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by december 31, 2026?.
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/moMajority of models lean YES, but not unanimous. Weak edge — consider waiting for stronger signal.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | YES | 98c | — |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | YES | 88c | 62% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | NO | 65c | 62% |
| AI Gemini Flash | YES | 92c | 85% |
| AI Kimi Macro | YES | 92c | 78% |
| AI Claude Analysis | ??? | — | 0% |
4 of 6 models estimate YES fair value above market (88–98c vs 90c). Gemini Flash leads with 85% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of YES at 92c — market prices it at 90c. 2-point gap supports YES.
The single tracked wallet entered YES at 78c, positioning early and well below the current 90c price, signaling conviction in the meeting outcome. With no NO entries recorded, smart-money flow is one-sided toward YES, reinforcing the bullish directional read and suggesting the wallet expects further upside or is comfortable holding to resolution.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xd5cc..a4 | MM | YES | $9.2K | +16% |
All tracked YES positions are in profit, with entries at 78c against a current 90c mark yielding roughly 15% unrealized gains, while no NO holders exist in the dataset. The absence of losing positions and the strong 90c support suggest the market is pricing high confidence in a diplomatic meeting, with little profit-taking pressure visible.
Polymarket prices YES at 90c with $55K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 92c. 2-point gap is within normal range — no significant mispricing.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 90c | $55K |
| Our Model | 92c | — |