Prediction markets put the probability at 88%: Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026. Currently, markets see this as likely (88% YES). Mid-August 2026: Anthropic has not set a share price, share count, or confirmed listing date, but the trajectory has sharpened.
Prediction market contracts for an Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026 are trading at an 88% implied probability of a YES resolution, up from 75.5% in early July and 85% as of mid-August, according to aggregated Polymarket data. The contract settles only if shares are listed and open for trading by the deadline, not merely upon filing or pricing. Shorter-duration contracts show a steep probability curve: the October 31, 2026 line is at 70%, while the September 30, 2026 contract has fallen to 11% after a 75% decline, and the September 15, 2026 window sits at just 2%. The June 30, 2026 contract has already resolved NO, reflecting the company's failure to meet earlier listing timelines [TradingView, Aug 18].
The market's concentration of probability in the final quarter of 2026 aligns with the company's disclosed preparation timeline. Anthropic reported annualized revenue of $30 billion as of April 2026, supporting a $965 billion private valuation relative to comparable software multiples. Investor meetings began in July 2026, with Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley leading the offering, though no share price, share count, or confirmed listing date has been set as of mid-August. The revenue run rate places Anthropic in a rare category for late-stage technology listings, and the banking syndicate's involvement signals institutional readiness for a large-cap debut [Startuphub, Jul 16].
The primary catalyst for the remaining uncertainty is the SEC review process, which must clear public registration, pricing, and exchange listing disclosure before any trading begins. The cumulative settlement structure means each date resolves YES only upon actual listing, making regulatory timing the binding constraint. In comparison, OpenAI's near-term IPO pricing is far more cautious, with its contracts trading at significantly lower implied probabilities for 2026 windows, suggesting the market views Anthropic's filing trajectory as more advanced. If the Anthropic IPO clears SEC review by late October, the year-end contract would likely resolve YES; if review extends into December, the 88% probability could compress rapidly toward the 70% level seen for the October window [Cryptoslate, Jul 16].
Polymarket prices this at 88c YES with $417K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.
2 smart wallets positioned NO.
We tracked 2 wallets with positions above $1K on this market.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x7c3d..6b | MM | YES | $2.2K | +18% | |
| 0x0845..6f | MM | YES | $1.3K | +32% |
YES wallets entered between 66c–74c. At current price 88c, all YES holders are profitable while all NO buyers are underwater. Profitable positions rarely sell early — YES side has structural price support.
Polymarket prices YES at 88c with $417K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 88c. Model and market are aligned — no pricing discrepancy detected.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 88c | $417K |
| Our Model | 88c | — |