Economics

Resolves: Jul 2027 9 months left Volume: $573K

Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?

Q: What are the current odds for 'Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?'?

As of September 2026, prediction markets price this at 90% YES on Polymarket with $573K in total trading volume.

Q: What does smart money say about 'Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?'?

OddsShift tracks 3 smart money wallets on this market. The dominant position among tracked wallets is YES. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability and win rate across Polymarket.

Q: What do AI models predict for 'Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?'?

OddsShift runs mathematical models (Bayesian Update, PIN, Compound Signal) plus up to 5 AI analysts (only the models that responded that night are shown) on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 95c YES. 3 models agree on direction. See full model breakdown on the market page.

YES

90c

10c

As of September 6, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?” at 90% YES with $573K traded. 3 tracked wallets hold a position here; the dominant side is YES.

Prediction markets give a 90% probability to: will anthropic ipo by december 31, 2026?.

Up from 88% to 90% since 2026-08-19 (+2pp)

Traded on Polymarket — $573K Volume

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Smart-money wallets: 3 tracked wallets positioned YES. Backed by $573K in trading volume.

PRO Analysis

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MODERATE AI VERDICT

BUY YES 91c

Models are divided — no strong consensus on direction. Weak edge — consider waiting for stronger signal.

Stop Loss Current Target Fair Value

Models Are Divided on This Market

Model	Says	Fair Value estimated fair price	Confidence
MATH PIN Model	YES	98c	—
AI Claude Analysis	NO	67c	55%
AI DeepSeek Quant	YES	94c	72%
AI Grok Contrarian	NO	58c	61%
AI Gemini Flash	YES	92c	88%
AI Kimi Macro	NO	65c	72%

3 of 6 models estimate YES fair value above market (92–98c vs 94c). Gemini Flash leads with 88% confidence.

Models estimate fair value of YES at 95c — market prices it at 94c. 1-point gap supports YES.

Why One Model Disagrees: Claude Analysis dissents at 33c — An IPO by Dec 31, 2026 requires a public S-1 filing and roadshow that would be widely reported, yet no such filing is known as of Sep 6 (...

3 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

Smart money has consistently accumulated YES across a wide entry range (66c-93c), showing conviction in an IPO by 2026, with the most recent buys near 93c signaling confidence in near-term catalysts. The absence of NO entries from tracked wallets indicates no sophisticated counter-positioning, reinforcing bullish sentiment. This laddered accumulation pattern suggests whales are scaling in on strength, not averaging down, which typically precedes continued upward momentum.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0x7c3d..6b	MM	YES	$2.3K	+20%
This Market Entered at 74c → now 90c (+20%), $2.3K on YES Activity · 2 events · Aug 11 → Aug 12 DatePositionAmountTotal Aug 11BUYYES74+$2,460$2,460 Aug 12SELLYES83−$693$2,074 Realized+$77 Unrealized+$417 Total Profit+$493 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1170) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xc658..84	MM	YES	$1.4K	-3%
This Market Entered at 93c → now 90c (-3%), $1.4K on YES Activity · 1 event · Aug 27 DatePositionAmountTotal Aug 27BUYYES93+$1,404$1,404 Realized— Unrealized−$38 Total Profit−$38 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1758) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x0845..6f	MM	YES	$1.3K	+36%
This Market Entered at 66c → now 90c (+36%), $1.3K on YES Activity · 2 events · Aug 05 → Aug 06 DatePositionAmountTotal Aug 05BUYYES66+$660$660 Aug 06BUYYES67+$284$954 Realized— Unrealized+$345 Total Profit+$345 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1246) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

See all 87 tracked wallets → · Learn about copy trading →

67% of YES Positions Are in Profit

All tracked YES positions are in profit, with entries ranging from 66c to 93c against a current price of 94c, indicating strong unrealized gains and no underwater holders. The absence of NO entries suggests no active bearish capital, creating a one-sided market where profit-taking could pressure price, but the high entry floor (93c) implies holders expect further upside. Price support is likely near 93c, as any dip would trigger profit-taking from recent buyers, but the lack of NO liquidity means downside is limited by seller absence.

Profit/Loss by Side

YES positions

67% in profit

NO positions

0% in profit

Polymarket: 90c YES — $573K Volume

Polymarket prices YES at 90c with $573K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 95c. 5-point gap suggests market may undervalue YES.

Platform	YES Price	Volume
Polymarket	90c	$573K
Our Model	95c	—

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?

As of September 2026, Polymarket prices this at 90% YES with $573K in total volume.

Where can I bet on Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?

This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.

What does smart money say about Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?

OddsShift tracks 3 smart money wallets on this market. Dominant position: YES. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.

What do AI models predict for Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?

OddsShift runs mathematical + AI models on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 95c YES. 3 models agree on direction.