Will Solana reach $180 by December 31, 2026?

As of September 3, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will Solana reach $180 by December 31, 2026?” at 13% YES with $77K traded. No tracked wallet holds a position on this market, so there is no verdict.

Prediction markets put the probability at 12%: Will Solana reach $180 by December 31, 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (12% YES). Our honest call is that Solana doesn’t hit $200 by December, but reaching $150 is probable.

What’s Happening

Solana (SOL) was trading near $76 as of mid-August 2026, roughly 69.3% below its twelve-month high of $247.60, marking the deepest drawdown among the three largest crypto assets as Bitcoin sat 48% below its peak and Ethereum 61% off its high. The market currently assigns a 12% probability that Solana will reach $180 by December 31, 2026, reflecting persistent bearish sentiment despite a broader crypto rebound that saw Bitcoin surpass $71,000 in recent sessions. On-chain data shows SOL consolidating below its 50-day moving average near $85, with volume profiles indicating weak accumulation at current levels and resistance forming at the $100 psychological barrier, a level analysts identify as critical for any sustained upside move [CryptoTicker, Jun 18].

The path for Solana to reach $180 by year-end hinges on two catalysts: the scheduled launch of the Alpenglow network upgrade in Q3 2026 and Bitcoin clearing the $90,000 threshold. A base-case forecast from 247wallst places SOL in the $120–$160 range by December, leaning toward the top end if Alpenglow ships on time, with a scenario where SOL clears $100 resistance in Q3, climbs toward $150 in Q4, and pushes into the $180–$220 range only if both conditions align simultaneously. Conversely, standard forecasts from Bitcoinfoundation suggest SOL might settle near $150–$200 by late 2026 under normal conditions, though restrictive economic environments could drive outcomes down to the $80–$130 band according to cautious chart-based methodologies [247wallst, May 21].

Whale activity remains a key variable, with large holders showing mixed signals — some accumulation near the $70–$80 support zone while others hedge downside exposure via derivatives. The Solana network continues to process over 2,500 transactions per second on average, but fee revenue has declined 35% quarter-over-quarter, suggesting reduced speculative usage. Regulatory clarity around spot SOL exchange-traded funds remains pending, with the SEC yet to rule on multiple applications filed in early 2026; approval would likely trigger institutional inflows that could compress the gap to the $180 target. Technical analysts note that a decisive break above $100 with sustained volume would invalidate the bearish structure, while failure to hold the $70 support level could accelerate declines toward the $50–$60 range, making the December 31 target increasingly unlikely given current momentum and the 12% market-implied odds [Bitcoinfoundation, Apr 21].

Traded on Polymarket — $77K Volume