As of October 16, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?” at 12% YES with $58K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is NO.
Prediction markets give a 12% probability to: will spider-man: brand new day be the #1 searched movie on google this year?.
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/mo6/7 models agree on NO, fair value 15c vs market 12c. Weak edge — consider waiting for stronger signal.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 98c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 71c | — |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 86c | 72% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | NO | 78c | 61% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 85c | 75% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 92c | 78% |
| AI Claude Analysis | ??? | — | 0% |
6 of 7 models estimate NO fair value below market (71–98c vs 88c). Kimi Macro leads with 78% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 85c — market prices it at 88c. 3-point gap supports YES.
The single tracked wallet is positioned exclusively on NO at 84c, signaling conviction that Spider-Man: Brand New Day will not be the #1 Google-searched movie this year. With no YES entries from tracked wallets, there is no smart-money counterweight to challenge the NO thesis. This positioning implies the market expects a different title to dominate search interest.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x5188..04 | MM | NO | $9.5K | +5% |
With YES at 12c, every YES position is underwater while all NO entries at 84c are in profit, creating strong one-sided P&L pressure. The absence of profitable YES holders removes any incentive to defend the 12c level, leaving the price vulnerable to further downside. NO holders have little reason to exit at a profit, reinforcing the dominant bearish side.
Polymarket prices YES at 12c with $58K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 15c. 3-point gap is within normal range — no significant mispricing.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 12c | $58K |
| Our Model | 15c | — |