As of September 4, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?” at 13% YES with $51K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is NO.
Prediction markets give a 13% probability to: will spider-man: brand new day be the #1 searched movie on google this year?.
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/mo7/7 models agree on NO, fair value 15c vs market 13c. Weak edge — consider waiting for stronger signal.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 98c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 71c | — |
| AI Claude Analysis | NO | 85c | 60% |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 88c | 68% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | NO | 78c | 48% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 85c | 85% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 88c | 78% |
7 of 7 models estimate NO fair value below market (71–98c vs 87c). Gemini Flash leads with 85% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 85c — market prices it at 87c. 2-point gap supports YES.
The single tracked wallet is entirely positioned on NO, with entries clustered at 84c, signaling a high-conviction bet against the YES outcome. This smart money entry near the current NO price suggests they expect minimal downside risk and likely see the market as fairly priced or slightly undervalued for NO. Their lack of YES exposure implies they view the movie's search dominance as highly unlikely, aligning with the broader market sentiment.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x5188..04 | MM | NO | $9.4K | +4% |
NO holders are deeply profitable, with entries at 84c against a current NO price of 87c, locking in gains and reinforcing strong support near the 84c level. YES is nearly worthless at 13c, with zero profitable positions, indicating no incentive for YES holders to sell into weakness, but also no buying pressure to lift the price. The dominant NO side suggests the market heavily discounts the movie achieving #1 search status this year.
Polymarket prices YES at 13c with $51K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 15c. 2-point gap is within normal range — no significant mispricing.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 13c | $51K |
| Our Model | 15c | — |