AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction — 4 of 5 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: YES won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | YES | 93c |
86%
|
|
| Compound Signal | YES | 71c |
42%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | YES | 84c |
55%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | YES | 82c |
65%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | YES | 85c |
70%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | YES | 82c |
70%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 83c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.
Smart money entered at 85c and the market has barely budged, suggesting the wallet treated this as a high-probability advancement bet rather than a convexity play. The entry near current price signals conviction that Hilton's primary advancement is already priced correctly, with no smart-money fade visible on the NO side.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xde04..37 | Retail | YES | $1.4K | +1% |
Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$249 on $1.4K capital deployed (avg +17.2%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 86c | $491.4K | 100c | |
| AI Consensus | 83c | — | ✓ matched |