Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?

Prediction markets put the probability at 26%: Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (26% YES). Treasury yields rise as investors await key inflation data.

What’s Happening

U.S. Treasury yields climbed sharply through the week of May 11-16, 2026 as a second wave of inflation reasserted itself in the data. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield opened the week at 4.3863% on Monday before pushing to 4.4306% Tuesday and surging 7 basis points to 4.5358% Friday, with Wolf Street reporting a peak near 4.6% as the week closed. The 30-year yield crossed 5.0% on Wednesday — the first time long-bond rates have printed at that level since 2007 — and extended to 5.12% by Friday. Back-to-back inflation prints anchored the move: CPI accelerated 3.8% year-over-year, driven by core services, gasoline, electricity, and food. [CNBC, May 11]

The repricing matters because it has flipped the Treasury curve from a sag into a hump through the 2-5 year belly, with the 2-year note settling near 3.97% while longer maturities led the selloff. The U.S. government auctioned $691 billion of Treasury securities during the week, a supply load that collided with shifting expectations for the rate trajectory under new Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh, who took office amid the resurgent price pressures. Whether the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before January 1, 2027 now hinges on roughly 40 basis points of additional move — a distance the long end covered in a matter of days during the May selloff. [Bloomberg, May 13]

Next catalysts are concentrated in the inflation calendar and geopolitical risk premium. Traders are tracking follow-up CPI and PCE prints to confirm whether the second inflation wave persists, alongside Treasury refunding announcements that will dictate duration supply through the back half of 2026. Middle East peace talks faltered earlier in the week, lifting safe-haven demand unevenly, while President Donald Trump's meeting with Premier Xi Jinping in Beijing introduced tariff-policy uncertainty into the long-end calculus. For the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% threshold to clear before year-end, market participants are watching whether core services inflation sustains above 3.5% and whether Warsh signals tolerance for above-target prints. [Wolf Street, May 16]

Traded on Polymarket — $56K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($56K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 18c YES.