Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the December interest rate announcement?

As of November 2, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the December interest rate announcement?” at 64% YES with $75K traded. No tracked wallet holds a position on this market, so there is no verdict.

The Bank of Canada has held its overnight rate at 2.25% for seven consecutive meetings, and current odds favor no change in December at 64%.

What’s Happening

The Bank of Canada has held its target for the overnight rate at 2.25% since September 2, 2026, marking a seventh consecutive pause and leaving the prime rate at 4.45%. The decision followed second-quarter growth of 3.3% annualized, ahead of the Bank's own 2.5% projection, with gains across consumption, housing, exports and business investment. However, the labour market has since cooled, with employment down 42,000 in August while the unemployment rate held at 6.4%. The next scheduled announcement is October 28, 2026, followed by December 9, 2026, the meeting referenced in the market on whether the Bank of Canada will make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the December interest rate announcement. [Ratehub, Sep 04]

The September hold extended a pause that began in October 2025, when the prime rate last moved to 4.45%. Historical precedent favors continuity: the Bank has now left the overnight rate unchanged at seven consecutive decisions, and economists at CIBC have projected the overnight rate remaining at its current level through end-2026, contingent on progress renewing CUSMA to support growth. TD Bank likewise expects the Bank of Canada to leave rates unchanged throughout 2026, characterizing the economy as being in a period of slow growth. [Nesto, Sep 14]

Attention now turns to the October 28 decision, which will set the tone ahead of December. The Bank holds eight scheduled rate decisions each year, and the overnight rate target directly affects variable mortgage rates and lenders' prime rates while indirectly influencing fixed mortgage rates through bond yields. Scotiabank has flagged concern over inflation dynamics and expects the Bank of Canada to raise its key rate, a minority view against the consensus for an extended hold. Whether the Bank of Canada will make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the December interest rate announcement depends on incoming growth and labour data over the next two meetings. [Ratehub, Oct 09]

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