As of October 31, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will the Democrats win the Kansas governor race in 2026?” at 28% YES with $127K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here, 1 of them tier-1; the dominant side is YES.
Prediction markets give a 28% probability to: will the democrats win the kansas governor race in 2026?.
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/moModels see 20-point mispricing — fair value 48c vs market 28c. 1 tier-1 wallet aligned with models — BUY YES at 28c.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH Bayesian Update | NO | 57c | — |
| MATH PIN Model | YES | 64c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 58c | — |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | YES | 38c | 42% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | YES | 47c | 38% |
| AI Gemini Flash | YES | 45c | 50% |
| AI Kimi Macro | ??? | 38c | 35% |
| AI Claude Analysis | ??? | — | 0% |
4 of 8 models estimate YES fair value above market (38–64c vs 28c). Gemini Flash leads with 50% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of YES at 48c — market prices it at 28c. 20-point gap supports YES.
The single tracked wallet entered YES at 26c, positioning long on Democrats in Kansas and already sitting on a modest gain. With no offsetting NO exposure, this is a clean directional bet signaling confidence in the Democratic side rather than a hedge. One wallet is thin evidence, but its entry below the current mark implies accumulation ahead of any repricing.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x4488..19 ★ | Retail | YES | $7.3K | +6% |
Every YES position is currently in profit, with entries clustered at 26c against a 28c mark, giving holders a thin but uniformly positive edge. No NO entries exist, so there is no losing cohort to create sell pressure or resistance at the current price. The absence of underwater positions suggests the 28c level is lightly supported and could drift higher if new buyers step in.
Significant 48-cent gap: Polymarket at 28c vs Kalshi at 76c. Kalshi traders see a substantially different probability. Our model estimates fair value at 48c.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 28c | $127K |
| Kalshi | 76c | — |
| Our Model | 48c | — |