Will the Democrats win the Oregon governor race in 2026?
YES
82c
NO
18c
As of October 30, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will the Democrats win the Oregon governor race in 2026?” at 82% YES with $77K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is YES.
Prediction markets give a 82% probability to: will the democrats win the oregon governor race in 2026?.
OddsShift analysis: up to 5 AI models + 1 tracked wallets on every market with smart-money data. Verdict track record published on the accuracy page.
PRO Analysis
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3 of 6 models estimate YES fair value above market (85–98c vs 82c). Gemini Flash leads with 75% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of YES at 89c — market prices it at 82c. 7-point gap supports YES.
Why One Model Disagrees: Grok Contrarian dissents at 61c — Oregon's 82% Dem consensus ignores 2022's razor-thin Kotek margin amid Portland crime/homelessness backlash and treats 2026 as static blu...
1 Active Wallets on This Market
The single tracked wallet entered YES at 80c, positioning squarely with the dominant side and signaling confidence in a Democratic hold. With no NO entries from this wallet, there is no hedging or contrarian signal to challenge the 82c consensus. The entry near current price implies the wallet views 82c as fair or slightly cheap rather than chasing an overextended market.
All tracked YES positions are in profit, with entries at 80c against the current 82c price yielding a modest 2c gain per share. No NO entries exist to create loss-side pressure, so the entire tracked book is aligned with the market's bullish lean. This one-sided profitability suggests holders have little incentive to exit, providing mild support at the 80c floor.
Profit/Loss by Side
YES positions
100%in profit
NO positions
0%in profit
Polymarket: 82c YES — $77K Volume
Polymarket prices YES at 82c with $77K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 89c. 7-point gap suggests market may undervalue YES.
What are the current odds for Will the Democrats win the Oregon governor race in 2026?
As of October 2026, Polymarket prices this at 82% YES with $77K in total volume.
Where can I bet on Will the Democrats win the Oregon governor race in 2026?
This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.
What does smart money say about Will the Democrats win the Oregon governor race in 2026?
OddsShift tracks 1 smart money wallet on this market. Dominant position: YES. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.
What do AI models predict for Will the Democrats win the Oregon governor race in 2026?
OddsShift runs mathematical + AI models on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 89c YES. 3 models agree on direction.
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