Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned NO but the market resolved YES. The verdict did not match the outcome.

Other

Resolved: Jul 29, 2026 Closed at $1.00 YES Final volume: $466.3K

Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?

Q: How did 'Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?' resolve?

The market resolved YES on Jul 29, 2026. YES redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Resolved · JUL 29

YES

100c

Market resolved YES at $1.00. AI consensus leaned NO (3 of 5 models agreed) but the outcome went the other way.

MODERATE RESULT

YES WON 100c

AI verdict was HOLD — no directional call. Market resolved YES at $1.00.

Stop Loss Target Final

1 of 5 Models Agreed: YES

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
PIN Model	NO	33c	34%
Compound Signal	YES	55c	10%
Claude Analysis	???	48c	52%
DeepSeek Quant	NO	33c	72%
Kimi Macro	NO	34c	65%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 41c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.

3 Active Wallets on This Market

Smart money is positioned against the pause-pause-pause outcome, having accumulated NO cheaply and now riding a comfortable cushion. The single-wallet signal is thin, but its direction is unambiguous: the tracked money is betting the Fed breaks its pause streak in at least one of the Apr–Jun–Jul decisions rather than holding steady through all three.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0x2783..21	Retail	YES	$13.2K	-15%
This Market Entered at 91c → now 50c (-15%), $13.2K on YES Activity · 5 events · Jun 10 → Jul 14 DatePositionAmountTotal Jun 10BUYYES82+$52$52 Jun 24BUYYES74+$74$121 Jun 25BUYYES74+$750$871 Jul 01SELLYES81−$953$0 Jul 14BUYYES92+$15,878$15,878 Realized+$77 Unrealized−$2,501 Total Profit−$2,424 Wallet Type Active retail with decent track record (100% over 1288 trades).
0xeb6f..f0	Retail	NO	$6.3K	+36%
This Market Entered at 13c → now 50c (+36%), $6.3K on NO Activity · 7 events · Jul 06 → Jul 14 DatePositionAmountTotal Jul 06BUYNO12+$2,880$2,880 Jul 07BUYNO15+$45$3,645 Jul 08SELLNO20−$5$4,855 Jul 10BUYNO16+$412$4,417 Jul 12SELLNO21−$9$5,613 Jul 13BUYNO24+$220$6,635 Jul 14SELLNO32−$294$8,585 Realized+$182 Unrealized+$2,864 Total Profit+$3,046 Wallet Type Active retail with decent track record (100% over 1290 trades).
0xa4b3..b8	Retail	NO	$1.4K	+43%
This Market Entered at 15c → now 50c (+43%), $1.4K on NO Activity · 4 events · Jun 29 → Jul 22 DatePositionAmountTotal Jun 29BUYNO18+$768$768 Jun 29SELLNO21−$677$224 Jul 06BUYNO12+$600$727 Jul 22SELLNO24−$12$1,460 Realized+$106 Unrealized+$527 Total Profit+$633 Wallet Type Active retail with decent track record (100% over 1436 trades).

See all 87 tracked wallets → · Learn about copy trading →

63% Capital on Winning Side

Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$6,398 on $20.9K capital deployed (avg -30.6%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

YES positions

63% in profit

NO positions

37% lost

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	76c	$466.3K	100c
AI Consensus	41c	—	× missed

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