Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Prediction markets put the probability at 6%: Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (6% YES). to enter the parliament.

What’s Happening

The Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) currently holds 56 seats in the State Duma following the 2021 parliamentary election, where it secured 11 percent of the vote. That result marked an increase of eleven seats from the previous cycle, positioning the nationalist party as the third-largest faction behind United Russia and the Communist Party. The next Russian parliamentary election is constitutionally scheduled for September 2026, though no formal decree has been issued by the Central Election Commission. The LDPR’s ability to claim the second-most seats would require it to overtake the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, which currently holds 57 seats — a narrow margin that makes the 6% YES probability a reflection of the party’s stagnant polling, which has hovered near 8-10 percent in recent Levada Center surveys [Carnegie Endowment, Jul 25].

The political landscape has shifted significantly since the LDPR’s founder Vladimir Zhirinovsky died in April 2022, leaving the party under the leadership of Leonid Slutsky. Slutsky has struggled to maintain the LDPR’s nationalist base, particularly as the Kremlin’s United Russia has absorbed more patriotic rhetoric following the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. In the September 2023 regional elections, the LDPR’s share of legislative seats dropped to 5.4 percent across all regions, a sharp decline from its 2021 federal performance. The party’s internal factional disputes over succession have further weakened its organizational capacity, with several regional leaders defecting to other parties. This procedural erosion matters because the Duma’s seat allocation formula requires a party to clear the 5 percent threshold to qualify for proportional seats, and the LDPR’s current trajectory suggests it will barely clear that bar, not surpass the Communists [The Moscow Times, Jan 05].

Looking ahead, the key procedural milestone will be the June 2026 deadline for party registration and candidate lists, which will test the LDPR’s ability to field a full slate of candidates across all 225 single-member districts. The party’s current Duma faction has introduced three pieces of legislation in the 2024 session aimed at boosting its nationalist credentials, including a bill on restricting foreign adoptions — but none have passed, reflecting its diminished legislative influence. The Central Election Commission’s final seat allocation will depend on voter turnout, which has historically favored United Russia in rural areas where the LDPR is weak. With the Communist Party maintaining a disciplined voter base of roughly 15-17 percent in national polls, the LDPR’s path to second place would require an unprecedented collapse of Communist support — a scenario that no major polling agency has projected for the next Russian parliamentary election [Carnegie Endowment, Jul 25].

Traded on Polymarket — $58K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($58K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 6c YES.