Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?

As of November 4, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?” at 60% YES with $209K traded. No tracked wallet holds a position on this market, so there is no verdict.

Prediction markets put the probability at 58%: Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards. Currently, markets are divided (58% YES, 42% NO). It’s good that The Odyssey is likely winning.

What’s Happening

Christopher Nolan's The Odyssey has emerged as the dominant contender in the race for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards, with betting markets placing the Universal release at -150, an implied probability of roughly 60%. The film's $1.75-billion global box office haul and its July opening have positioned it as the film to beat, though the ceremony is still more than five months away. Industry analysts note that the question of whether The Odyssey will win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards remains open, as several high-profile contenders have yet to screen for voters. [Hardrock, Nov 03]

Awards watchers are already speculating that The Odyssey could match or exceed the 16 nominations record set by Sinners, with composer Ludwig Göransson—scoring his third consecutive Nolan film—considered a strong contender in the music categories. The Los Angeles Times noted that while a best picture win for The Odyssey appears likely, it is "a bit early for ironclad guarantees" ahead of the January 21 nomination announcement. Some prognosticators, including IndieWire, have characterized a win as potentially "boring" given Nolan's recent Best Picture victory for Oppenheimer less than three years ago, while others caution that an international Netflix contender could still disrupt the race. [Los Angeles Times, Oct 12]

The structural factor likely to determine the outcome is the release calendar: multiple awards contenders have yet to be seen by voters, leaving room for the field to shift before year's end. Awards Daily noted that a win for The Odyssey would signal a "healthy industry" and suggested that bigger theatrical releases may be back in favor with Academy voters, though the publication acknowledged uncertainty about whether an international Netflix film could upset the race. Whether The Odyssey will win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards will ultimately hinge on how the unseen contenders perform with critics and guilds through the fall festival and precursor season. [Awards Daily, Oct 02]

Traded on Polymarket — $209K Volume