Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 57%: Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026. Currently, markets are divided (57% YES, 43% NO). Although Intuit is the worst performer in the S&P 500 so far, I highly doubt it will rise to become the best performer in the second half.

What’s Happening

As of late July 2026, the S&P 500 has posted a 9.8% total return for the first half of the year, trailing the S&P SmallCap 600's 23.9% gain and the S&P MidCap 400's 17.3% advance, according to RBC Wealth Management data published July 2. The equal-weight S&P 500 has climbed 12.1% versus 10.2% for the market-cap-weighted index, while the Nasdaq Composite has risen 13.1%. This broadening leadership marks a notable shift from the 2023-2025 period when megacap technology stocks dominated, with the Magnificent 7 showing mixed results in 2026 — only Apple's 25% year-to-date gain has surpassed the broader index's advance, per Reuters reporting from July 29 [Reuters, Jul 29].

The question of whether the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026 hinges on several converging factors. Wall Street consensus estimates project 11% revenue growth and 23% earnings growth for S&P 500 companies in 2026 — the fastest paces since 2022 and 2021, respectively, according to analyst projections cited in late June. The index itself has risen nearly 10% in 2026, with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq repeatedly hitting record levels through May, driven by artificial intelligence momentum and robust earnings, as reported by Chase on June 3. However, the equal-weight S&P 500's 13% gain versus the standard index's 8.5% rise in 2026 indicates that the market's breadth has widened significantly, potentially undermining the headline index's relative performance against smaller-cap benchmarks [Chase, Jun 03].

Looking ahead, the second half of 2026 presents a critical test for whether the S&P 500 have the best performance in the calendar year. Nvidia, the world's largest company by market cap, has been identified by some analysts as a potential second-half leader, despite its size, according to a July 24 analysis noting that SanDisk was the best-performing S&P 500 stock in the first half [Motley Fool, Jul 24]. The index's ability to outperform mid-cap and small-cap benchmarks will depend on whether earnings growth materializes as projected and whether the broadening rally persists. Historical context shows that when the S&P 500's first-half return exceeds 9%, the index has finished the year higher in 78% of cases since 1950, though the current gap between large-cap and small-cap performance — with the S&P SmallCap 600 outpacing the S&P 500 by 14.1 percentage points — represents the widest divergence in recent memory, a factor that could weigh on the index's full-year ranking [RBC Wealth Management, Jul 02].

Traded on Polymarket — $192K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 57c YES with $192K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.